TheBettorBet.com

This Week’s Spread Ranges

If you haven’t already, check out our update to the betting model we’re writing about on this site. (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/). I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-7 over the last 5 seasons .

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We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

In case you haven’t checked in over here in a couple weeks, we’ve changed up what we’re doing here in an effort to improve our system, make it simple, less nonsensical, and more profitable.

Now instead of a bunch of spread-ranges and model outputs, we’re just giving you our bets, the worst-possible line at which you should take the team we’re betting, and how confident we are in it, I, II, and III. The way our confidence levels are explained are the same: we still use the same two models, and when both models like the game it’s a confidence level III bet. We’ve got one of those this week and so far this year we’ve only missed on two of these (I think we’re 6-2 but The Wizard keeps all that statistical information, I’m not sure where that stuff is).

Anyway, five bets this week, up from two last wek – and here’s what we’re taking:

Confidence Level I:

New York Giants, -8 or better vs. Philadelphia

We were actually able to nab this game at -6.5 which is huge for us. Anytime you can get this at less than a touchdown you can nab it. Philly is a hot pick after going off last week so the spread should stay closer than 8 in most places.

 

New England, -5 or better @ Seattle 

The Pats are coming off a pretty sour loss but are playing a great team to recover from. Even with Hasselbeck back (5 times fast?) the Seahawks are not looking good. Their 12th man could pose a problem for an offensive line that is not playing very well and a “rookie” quarterback. Either way this is a kitchen sink situation for the Patriots, they can’t lose anymore.

 

Confidence Level II:

Minnesota, -10 or better @ Detroit

Not only are the Lions hapless, they play in the ugliest, least inspiring uniforms in the league. They are seriously just plain blue with white letters, no colored borders or a hint of black on any of them. It’s annoying. Also annoying: Daunte Culpepper. I don’t know why, he just is.

 

Baltimore, -6 or better vs. Washington

The Ravens are looking good and it seems like spreadmakers think it’s all over for the Skins who are already eliminated from winning their division. Portis is cold. Santana Moss has been non-existant, and Campbell is auditioning to be Matt Cassel’s backup next year in the nation’s capital.

 

Confidence Level III

Pittsburgh, -3 or better vs. Dallas

I was surprised that this was a confidence level III game since I hate Pittsburgh and think they suck no matter what. I also think Dallas is pretty good but there’s a reason why I write the blog posts and not the formulas.

Games to Bet:

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