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Posts Tagged ‘steelers’

Week 13 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 26.55056. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 26.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 25.17013, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1.4 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  N.Y. Giants   – 26.55056
2.  Tennessee     – 25.17013
3.  Baltimore     – 24.19397
4.  Pittsburgh    – 23.75267
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.70213
6.  N.Y. Jets     – 22.50439
7.  Green Bay     – 22.04002
8.  Carolina      – 20.75316
9.  Atlanta       – 20.38514
10. PHiladelphia  – 20.00413
11. Indianapolis  – 19.90332
12. Arizona       – 19.81332
13. Chicago       – 19.47601
14. Minnesota     – 19.43752
15. New Olreans   – 19.37883
16. San Diego     – 18.80609
17. New England   – 18.18911
18. Dallas        – 17.50090
19. Buffalo       – 15.99893
20. Washington    – 15.74136
21. Miami         – 15.18219
22. Cleveland     – 15.00144
23. Jacksonville  – 14.98657
24. Houston       – 13.84310
25. Denver        – 11.22853
26. Seattle       –  9.52927
27. San Francisco –  9.49379
28. Oakland       –  9.30297
29. Cincinnati    –  9.22352
30. Kansas City   –  6.47465
31. Detroit       –  4.32118
32. St. Louis    – 0.0000

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
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Week 10 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 23.29182. Oakland, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Oakland by 23 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 23.12009, meaning the Steelers “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.17 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Pittsburgh   – 23.29182 (+2)
2.  Tennessee   – 23.12009  (–)
3.  Philadelphia – 22.16731 (+2)
4.  N.Y. Giants  – 21.62066  (–)
5.  Chicago       – 20.56298  (-4)
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Week 9 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 28, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Chicago, has a value of 25.19971. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Chicago should conceivably beat Kansas City by 25 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 24.85490, meaning the Bears “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.35 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1. Chicago                   25.19971
2.  Tennessee               24.85490
3.  Pittsburgh               23.21320
4.  NY Giants                22.91384
5.  Philadelphia            22.68059
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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

  Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 8 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 21, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 29.27980. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Kansas City by 29 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.97769, meaning the Bucs “would” beat the Bears by approximately 2.3 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1.  Pittsburgh    – 29.27980 – (+3)
2.  Tennessee     – 26.97769 – (+1)
3.  Chicago       – 26.86526 – (-1)
4.  Philadelpiha  – 24.11808 – (+5)
5.  Tampa Bay     – 23.48914 – (-4)

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Sunday Morning Action

Posted by deck104 on October 19, 2008

Well I woke up a little early and the Bucs spread has moved to -10 and thus in our range. It was mired at 10.5 all week and if you don’t already know we never take a favorite giving more than 10 points. Since we’ve already bet the Tennessee game, we’re at 8 total games for today and tomorrow.

The Houston spread actually moved the other way so count that one out for this weekend and while the Pittsburgh spread is still within a half point of our range it hasn’t moved all week and we’re not expecting to get to nine games for week 7. Bet well.

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Week 5 – 2/3 Ain’t Bad

Posted by deck104 on October 6, 2008

We’re pretty excited that our first week of testing our betting formula with real money worked out pretty well. Obviously we’re not going to win every bet we place, the goal is to be profitable over the course of the season and win more than 58% of our bets to turn a profit, again, with stress on “over the course of the season.”

Well, we’re off to a hot start here in week 5 as we won two out of our three contests and lost the game we most expected to lose: The 49ers getting only 3 from the Patriots. We won with Washington getting 6.5, a game that got a little out of hand in the first quarter but was all Washington from there on in (I was pretty confident on that one). We also won the nailbiting Steelers at Jaguars game last night, where Pittsburg won outright (you go Mr. Formula).
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Steelers Bet Update

Posted by deck104 on October 4, 2008

So with Big Ben very questionable for tomorrow’s game, the spread for the Steelers jumped to them getting 5.5 which is a full point and a half out of our range, however we’ve already bet the game within our range.
This is the number one thing we were concerned about going into the season testing the formula. Because we tested everything using static spreads (on CBSSportsline.com they lock on Wednesday and do not change). Statistically there’s really no way for us to figure out what happens after those spreads, but common sense would suggest that since we were successful testing the formula using static spreads considering any number of those spreads could’ve moved outside our range, we should be okay.

Granted, we will keep an eye on this interaction throughout the season and should be able to make a decision about it based on what we find.

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