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Posts Tagged ‘spread ranges’

Week 9 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 28, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Chicago, has a value of 25.19971. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Chicago should conceivably beat Kansas City by 25 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 24.85490, meaning the Bears “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.35 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1. Chicago                   25.19971
2.  Tennessee               24.85490
3.  Pittsburgh               23.21320
4.  NY Giants                22.91384
5.  Philadelphia            22.68059
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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

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Monday Morning – Week 7 Recap

Posted by deck104 on October 20, 2008

We didnt get a chance to post this up yesterday but on Sunday morning the Tampa Bay spread moved into our range and we took it. We also got the Steelers spread on Saturday night really late but I don’t remember if I posted that up yet or not, but there ya go.

The Wizard was a little worried about having 9 bets on the table this week, clearly more than we were expecting for any given week of the NFL season but with the new model comes about 3 more bets per week and I had faith that we wouldn’t completely bottom out and we didnt.

We’re 4-3-1 so far with the push coming late, late last night to the point I’m kind of pissed off about it. So far we haven’t been burned by junktime scoring and we weren’t exactly burned by it last night either, but Obviously I’d rather be 5-3 than 4-3-1. I’ll go backwards and cover the games

Tampa Bay -10 vs. Seattle – Push

The Bucs were off and running early when I was flipping between the two Tampa Bay games of the night (the other being the Sox game). 17-3 late in the game and I was really confident that we finally had a game we weren’t going to sweat out (it seems that either we know we’ve lost early, or we’re sweating it out til the end). Of course, Julius Jones hadn’t done shit all day and then all of a sudden in the final drive with less than five minutes late he looks like he hadn’t taken a handoff all night. He had about 50 yards on two runs and set the Seahawks up for an easy rollout touchdown pass and the Push was on.

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Sunday Morning Action

Posted by deck104 on October 19, 2008

Well I woke up a little early and the Bucs spread has moved to -10 and thus in our range. It was mired at 10.5 all week and if you don’t already know we never take a favorite giving more than 10 points. Since we’ve already bet the Tennessee game, we’re at 8 total games for today and tomorrow.

The Houston spread actually moved the other way so count that one out for this weekend and while the Pittsburgh spread is still within a half point of our range it hasn’t moved all week and we’re not expecting to get to nine games for week 7. Bet well.

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
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