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Posts Tagged ‘Point Spread’

Week 10 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 6, 2008

Every week we post point spread ranges that get spit out by Mr. Formula’s two betting models. The reason we use two models is so that we can maximize the number of games we bet at the greatest possible win percentage.

We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

A really light week this week, with three sure bets with an additional two games that could move into our range. Then there’s the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, which is a total wildcard as there’s no spread posted as of yet.

As always, below each game listed is how each model feels about each team, when you should bet them and when you shouldnt.

 

Games to Bet:

Thursday Night Football

Cleveland, -3 vs. Denver – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take CLE from -7.5 to -11
Model 2 – Take CLE from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better
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Neither model would take Denver getting anything less than three scores, which isn’t going to happen vs. a Brady Quinn led Cleveland Browns team that has looked horrible last year.

This is the third time we’ve bet on the Browns this year and we’re 1-1 with them. I am almost glad I don’t have NFL network to be able to watch this on. But, I will say that the Broncos are one of the teams I’d like to see the young Brady Quinn face in his first NFL start, their Defense stinks on ice.

 

Regularly Scheduled Football

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Atlanta, -1 vs. New Orleans – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take ATL from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from -0.5 to +1, also +4.5 and better

The earliest either model would take New Orleans is +13 which is not going to happen against the Falcons.

The Falcons are a different team at home even though they have started to win on the road. Turner and Ryan are beasts in hotlanta and the Saints are wishy-washy as hell this year. I feel like this is going to be a shootout, but a shootout Atlanta can win as the Falcons D is a little bit better than the Saints D, it’s going to come down to whether or not Matty Ryan can hang with Drew Brees.

Another interesting note about this game, we’re currently waiting to see if it will move a half point in the Saints favor. If it does, it’ll be a Confidence Level III game, the closest this site comes to picking a LOCK of the week. Confidence Level III games are 2-1 this year and 25-7 since 2002.

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Carolina, -9.5 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Carolina from -16 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take Carolina from -10.5 to -9, also -5.5 and better

Niether model likes the Raiders getting anything but nearly four scores (+23 is the best either would grab them at) which just isn’t going to happen, even if Carolina is one of the best teams in the league.

It seems like Mr. Formula is taking anyone playing the Raiders recently. We’ve already bet this game for fears that it would move to -10, which is clearly worse than -9.5 for push reasons, also it’s easier to win by 10 points than it is to win by 11, especially against trashy teams that go down two touchdowns and are able to score a TD in junktime to screw up gamblers’ days.

 

Games to Watch

Arizona, -9.5 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Never
Model 2 – Take ARI from -11.5 to -10, also -6.5 and better

Model 1 would never suggest Arizona since it outputs to take the Cardinals at spreads greater than -10, and we never bet more than 10 point favorites.

Also, the best either model would take the 49ers is +24, so that’s not going to happen. The Arizona game is actually one we think will move into our range, which is dangerous because it would be at that magic number of 10 points. We really like the Cards from a betting standpoint with their schedule, we really liked them last week but the model didn’t take them.

 

Miami, -8.5 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Miami from -8 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both Models suggest Seattle at well over two scores, so we won’t be seeing that happen.

This game has already moved a half point in our direction, and if it moves another half point it’ll be a Confidence Level I pick so we’re keeping an eye on it.

 

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh – No spread available

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -2.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both models only suggest the Colts at more than two scores and we don’t expect to see that, but if the Pittsburgh game is anywhere within our ranges we’ll be jumping on it. There’s also a good chance this ends up a confidence level III game. In any event, expect an update by Sunday.

 

There are no other games even close to our ranges, and in an effort to make this site less confusing and to keep it updated with pertinent information, we’re going to stop there. The Jets were a possible team to watch, but that spread has actually started moving further away from our ranges, so we’ve unflagged it.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the week about how everything’s going and what’s happening, until then- bet well.

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This Week’s Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 2, 2008

Looks like just five this week, as Arizona refused to move into our range. Jacksonville is still at 7.5 though we’re going to give it another hour before we bet in hopes that it moves to 7 since there isn’t that much of a difference between 7.5 and 8 (UPDATE:  Jacksonville moved to -7).

Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston

Atlanta, -3 @ Oakland

Cleveland, -1.5 vs Baltimore

Jacksonville, -7 vs. @ Cincinatti

Tennessee, -5.5 vs. Green Bay

Great Luck!

Record, Year to Date: 13-10-2

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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Why 10+ Point Favorites are a Crapshoot

Posted by mrformula on October 25, 2008

Ok, so this is our theory as to why we don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Well first off, the data shows that it is not a good idea. But we think there is a good (ok, reasonable) explanation for this:

In thinking about the TB push and the Giants near push last week, it gives me a theory as to why you don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Basically, if you think of this from the underdog or favorites point of view, it should still make sense. If the underdog has the ball late, going for a score, the only way the defense is going to relax and not worry as much about a garbage TD is if it’s a 3 score game. In a 2 score game, I don’t think defenses would be lettting up at the end of games with the obvious implication that they are just one lucky bounce on an onside kick away from having a chance to tie the game. Hence, the lead would have to be 17 or more (16 would still be 2 scores), so if they do give up a garbage time score they’d still be winning by at least 10. This is exactly what happened in the TB game last week. If that lead had been 16 instead of 17, I don’t think you would have seen the same relaxed approach on defense that TB took.

If the favorite has the ball late, they will be pushing to make it a 2 score game. This was evident in the Giants game, where they played conservatively for the FG knowing it would put them up 2 scores and basically seal the game, with a 10 point lead. While we got lucky that JT O’Sullivan kicked the ball out of his own end zone for the cover, the idea still holds. So basically, we think that the winning team plays late in the 4th quarter to maintain at least a 2 score lead, which more often then not translates to a 10 point lead. This is why it’s risky and can’t really be predicted when the line is more then 10. Because often times the team that has more then a 10 point spread might play ‘more then 10 points better then the other team’, but their strategy late in games is to maintain at least a two-score lead. Thus betting on these games is a crapshoot because it often comes down to who scores in garbage time.

On another note, we are going to start posting every bet we make before the games on Sundays, so that people can see what lines we were able to get games. Last week alone, two lines moved into our range on late Saturday night-Early Sunday morning, that we grabbed and I’m not sure if we had time to post. But from now on we will make this post every Sunday, with our record to date included. If a Monday night game could possibly move into our range but hasn’t yet as of Sunday, we will update that post if it does and we bet it.

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Sunday Morning Action

Posted by deck104 on October 19, 2008

Well I woke up a little early and the Bucs spread has moved to -10 and thus in our range. It was mired at 10.5 all week and if you don’t already know we never take a favorite giving more than 10 points. Since we’ve already bet the Tennessee game, we’re at 8 total games for today and tomorrow.

The Houston spread actually moved the other way so count that one out for this weekend and while the Pittsburgh spread is still within a half point of our range it hasn’t moved all week and we’re not expecting to get to nine games for week 7. Bet well.

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Friday Afternoon Update

Posted by deck104 on October 17, 2008

 

Not much to say but the Titans spread moved to -9 so we jumped on it and bet it last night. We could be looking at 7-9 games this weekend which is a little nuts. We didn’t go into this thinking that we’d be adding another model and thus another model’s worth of games. Gonna be a fun weekend though.

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Week 6 Spread-Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 9, 2008

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

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