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Posts Tagged ‘NFL week 8’

This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Why 10+ Point Favorites are a Crapshoot

Posted by mrformula on October 25, 2008

Ok, so this is our theory as to why we don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Well first off, the data shows that it is not a good idea. But we think there is a good (ok, reasonable) explanation for this:

In thinking about the TB push and the Giants near push last week, it gives me a theory as to why you don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Basically, if you think of this from the underdog or favorites point of view, it should still make sense. If the underdog has the ball late, going for a score, the only way the defense is going to relax and not worry as much about a garbage TD is if it’s a 3 score game. In a 2 score game, I don’t think defenses would be lettting up at the end of games with the obvious implication that they are just one lucky bounce on an onside kick away from having a chance to tie the game. Hence, the lead would have to be 17 or more (16 would still be 2 scores), so if they do give up a garbage time score they’d still be winning by at least 10. This is exactly what happened in the TB game last week. If that lead had been 16 instead of 17, I don’t think you would have seen the same relaxed approach on defense that TB took.

If the favorite has the ball late, they will be pushing to make it a 2 score game. This was evident in the Giants game, where they played conservatively for the FG knowing it would put them up 2 scores and basically seal the game, with a 10 point lead. While we got lucky that JT O’Sullivan kicked the ball out of his own end zone for the cover, the idea still holds. So basically, we think that the winning team plays late in the 4th quarter to maintain at least a 2 score lead, which more often then not translates to a 10 point lead. This is why it’s risky and can’t really be predicted when the line is more then 10. Because often times the team that has more then a 10 point spread might play ‘more then 10 points better then the other team’, but their strategy late in games is to maintain at least a two-score lead. Thus betting on these games is a crapshoot because it often comes down to who scores in garbage time.

On another note, we are going to start posting every bet we make before the games on Sundays, so that people can see what lines we were able to get games. Last week alone, two lines moved into our range on late Saturday night-Early Sunday morning, that we grabbed and I’m not sure if we had time to post. But from now on we will make this post every Sunday, with our record to date included. If a Monday night game could possibly move into our range but hasn’t yet as of Sunday, we will update that post if it does and we bet it.

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

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Week 8 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 21, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 29.27980. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Kansas City by 29 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.97769, meaning the Bucs “would” beat the Bears by approximately 2.3 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1.  Pittsburgh    – 29.27980 – (+3)
2.  Tennessee     – 26.97769 – (+1)
3.  Chicago       – 26.86526 – (-1)
4.  Philadelpiha  – 24.11808 – (+5)
5.  Tampa Bay     – 23.48914 – (-4)

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