Posts Tagged ‘jaguars’

Week 9 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 30, 2008

Busy week for all of us here at the Helices Posit, but we can’t go without are spread ranges. We’ve got another confidence 3 pick this week, which is pretty exciting because I’m looking for retribution after the Patriots blowout of the Broncos which came out of nowhere.

So far we’re looking at 5 games so far with another few to keep an eye on. We’ve already bet four of the games and we’re kind of waiting to see if we can get better on the fifth, but you’ll find out more of that below. So let’s get to it.


Please excuse all the dots but I’m really, really sick of spending like an hour spacing this thing out when wordpress just keeps mashing it all together again.



Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston – Confidence Level III

Model 1 – Take Minnesota from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Minnesota from from -1 to -4.5, also -6 and better

Model 1 – Take Houston from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take Houston from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5

Gotta love a confidence level 3 game. We jumped on this game since the spread was right at the edge of the model #2 output. Houston has been playing pretty well as of late so I’m a little surprised, but it’s a less than a touchdown spread with Gus & Co. rested and playing well themselves.


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Steelers Bet Update

Posted by deck104 on October 4, 2008

So with Big Ben very questionable for tomorrow’s game, the spread for the Steelers jumped to them getting 5.5 which is a full point and a half out of our range, however we’ve already bet the game within our range.
This is the number one thing we were concerned about going into the season testing the formula. Because we tested everything using static spreads (on they lock on Wednesday and do not change). Statistically there’s really no way for us to figure out what happens after those spreads, but common sense would suggest that since we were successful testing the formula using static spreads considering any number of those spreads could’ve moved outside our range, we should be okay.

Granted, we will keep an eye on this interaction throughout the season and should be able to make a decision about it based on what we find.

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