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Week 12 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

After another frustrating week we’ve decided to mix things up a bit seeing how this is our ‘test’ season and we’re still working out kinks.

Now instead of giving you what each model outputs and messing around with ranges that don’t make a whole lot of sense (“why would I take Denver at +3 but not +6??”), we’re just going to give you the worst possible spread for the games that qualify, the confidence level, and any other pertinent information that you might need to bet.

As always post any questions or email us.


Chicago, -8 and better @ St. Louis – Confidence Level I


Cleveland, -4 and better vs. Houston – Confidence Level I


Denver, -10 and better vs. Oakland – Confidence Level I


Indianapolis, +2 and better @ San Diego – Confidence Level I


Tampa Bay, -9 and better @ Detroit – Confidence Level II


Tennessee, -6 and better vs. New York Jets – Confidence Level II


Green Bay, +2 and better @ New Orleans – Confidence Level II


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Week 12 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their ‚Äúvalue‚ÄĚ at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 27.76758. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning¬†Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 26.18522, meaning the¬†Titans ‚Äúwould‚ÄĚ beat the¬†Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

Week 12:

1.  Tennessee    Р27.76758
2.  NY Giants    Р26.18522
3.  Green Bay    Р24.00425
4.  Pittsburgh   Р23.66857
5.  Tampa Bay    Р22.38370
6.  Philadelphia Р22.03401
7.  Baltimore    Р21.88609
8.  Carolina     Р21.16097
9.  Arizona      Р19.67321
10. Indianapolis – 19.16029
11. Chicago      Р19.13627
12. Atlanta      Р18.83900
13. NY Jets      Р18.71930
14. San Diego    Р18.02916
15. Minnesota    Р18.01955
16. Dallas       Р17.73040
17. Jacksonville – 15.90905
18. New Orleans  Р16.60562
19. Celeveland   Р15.98245
20. Washington   Р15.78766
21. Miami        Р15.45555
22. New England  Р15.25962
23. Buffalo      Р13.62349
24. Denver       Р12.91206
25. Houston      Р12.47595
26. Seattle      Р9.45947
27. San Fran     Р9.26765
28. Cincinatti   Р9.23586
29. Kansas City  Р6.93941
30. Oakland      Р5.71706
31. Detroit      Р4.49666
32. St. Louis    Р0.00000


Crazy week so these are a little late. Going to start working on the new spreads.

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Updates – Spreads and Blog

Posted by deck104 on October 4, 2008

There’s some new spread action right now, reason enough to make a post to update everyone on what’s happening with the spreads as we head into the weekend.

First off, Atlanta/Green Bay finally has a spread, unfortunately (or fortunately, if you like money) it’s Atlanta +4 so we won’t be betting it.

Washington’s spread however moved from +5.5 to +6, so we’re checking this spread every couple hours to see if it moves another half a point to WSH +6.5 in which case we’d take it.

We’re still waiting on San Francisco to get more points, though we’re still looking at risking $100 to win $105 right now so that ain’t bad. We’ll probably bet this on Sunday but we are expecting this spread to move big over the weekend.

Also, we’re building the site as we go here, mainly because this is a work-in-progress anyway, but also because we’ve only recently begun to think about chronicling this whole project. We’re creating pages for every team with pertinent betting information: the team site, the team depth chart, the team injury reports and the team against the spread in numerous situations over the past 10 years in different increments. We’ve got all of the AFC East and some of the AFC North done (though the links for the Jets and Dolphins aren’t done because we can’t load flash on my work computers).

Anyhow, that’s the scoop around here. Bet wisely.

Posted in General, Point Spreads | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »