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Week 12 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 27.76758. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 26.18522, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

Week 12:

1.  Tennessee    – 27.76758
2.  NY Giants    – 26.18522
3.  Green Bay    – 24.00425
4.  Pittsburgh   – 23.66857
5.  Tampa Bay    – 22.38370
6.  Philadelphia – 22.03401
7.  Baltimore    – 21.88609
8.  Carolina     – 21.16097
9.  Arizona      – 19.67321
10. Indianapolis – 19.16029
11. Chicago      – 19.13627
12. Atlanta      – 18.83900
13. NY Jets      – 18.71930
14. San Diego    – 18.02916
15. Minnesota    – 18.01955
16. Dallas       – 17.73040
17. Jacksonville – 15.90905
18. New Orleans  – 16.60562
19. Celeveland   – 15.98245
20. Washington   – 15.78766
21. Miami        – 15.45555
22. New England  – 15.25962
23. Buffalo      – 13.62349
24. Denver       – 12.91206
25. Houston      – 12.47595
26. Seattle      – 9.45947
27. San Fran     – 9.26765
28. Cincinatti   – 9.23586
29. Kansas City  – 6.93941
30. Oakland      – 5.71706
31. Detroit      – 4.49666
32. St. Louis    – 0.00000

 

Crazy week so these are a little late. Going to start working on the new spreads.

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
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Week 10 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 6, 2008

Every week we post point spread ranges that get spit out by Mr. Formula’s two betting models. The reason we use two models is so that we can maximize the number of games we bet at the greatest possible win percentage.

We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

A really light week this week, with three sure bets with an additional two games that could move into our range. Then there’s the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, which is a total wildcard as there’s no spread posted as of yet.

As always, below each game listed is how each model feels about each team, when you should bet them and when you shouldnt.

 

Games to Bet:

Thursday Night Football

Cleveland, -3 vs. Denver – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take CLE from -7.5 to -11
Model 2 – Take CLE from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better
.

Neither model would take Denver getting anything less than three scores, which isn’t going to happen vs. a Brady Quinn led Cleveland Browns team that has looked horrible last year.

This is the third time we’ve bet on the Browns this year and we’re 1-1 with them. I am almost glad I don’t have NFL network to be able to watch this on. But, I will say that the Broncos are one of the teams I’d like to see the young Brady Quinn face in his first NFL start, their Defense stinks on ice.

 

Regularly Scheduled Football

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Atlanta, -1 vs. New Orleans – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take ATL from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from -0.5 to +1, also +4.5 and better

The earliest either model would take New Orleans is +13 which is not going to happen against the Falcons.

The Falcons are a different team at home even though they have started to win on the road. Turner and Ryan are beasts in hotlanta and the Saints are wishy-washy as hell this year. I feel like this is going to be a shootout, but a shootout Atlanta can win as the Falcons D is a little bit better than the Saints D, it’s going to come down to whether or not Matty Ryan can hang with Drew Brees.

Another interesting note about this game, we’re currently waiting to see if it will move a half point in the Saints favor. If it does, it’ll be a Confidence Level III game, the closest this site comes to picking a LOCK of the week. Confidence Level III games are 2-1 this year and 25-7 since 2002.

.

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Carolina, -9.5 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Carolina from -16 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take Carolina from -10.5 to -9, also -5.5 and better

Niether model likes the Raiders getting anything but nearly four scores (+23 is the best either would grab them at) which just isn’t going to happen, even if Carolina is one of the best teams in the league.

It seems like Mr. Formula is taking anyone playing the Raiders recently. We’ve already bet this game for fears that it would move to -10, which is clearly worse than -9.5 for push reasons, also it’s easier to win by 10 points than it is to win by 11, especially against trashy teams that go down two touchdowns and are able to score a TD in junktime to screw up gamblers’ days.

 

Games to Watch

Arizona, -9.5 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Never
Model 2 – Take ARI from -11.5 to -10, also -6.5 and better

Model 1 would never suggest Arizona since it outputs to take the Cardinals at spreads greater than -10, and we never bet more than 10 point favorites.

Also, the best either model would take the 49ers is +24, so that’s not going to happen. The Arizona game is actually one we think will move into our range, which is dangerous because it would be at that magic number of 10 points. We really like the Cards from a betting standpoint with their schedule, we really liked them last week but the model didn’t take them.

 

Miami, -8.5 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Miami from -8 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both Models suggest Seattle at well over two scores, so we won’t be seeing that happen.

This game has already moved a half point in our direction, and if it moves another half point it’ll be a Confidence Level I pick so we’re keeping an eye on it.

 

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh – No spread available

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -2.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both models only suggest the Colts at more than two scores and we don’t expect to see that, but if the Pittsburgh game is anywhere within our ranges we’ll be jumping on it. There’s also a good chance this ends up a confidence level III game. In any event, expect an update by Sunday.

 

There are no other games even close to our ranges, and in an effort to make this site less confusing and to keep it updated with pertinent information, we’re going to stop there. The Jets were a possible team to watch, but that spread has actually started moving further away from our ranges, so we’ve unflagged it.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the week about how everything’s going and what’s happening, until then- bet well.

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Week 10 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 23.29182. Oakland, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Oakland by 23 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 23.12009, meaning the Steelers “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.17 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Pittsburgh   – 23.29182 (+2)
2.  Tennessee   – 23.12009  (–)
3.  Philadelphia – 22.16731 (+2)
4.  N.Y. Giants  – 21.62066  (–)
5.  Chicago       – 20.56298  (-4)
Read the rest of this entry »

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This Week’s Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 2, 2008

Looks like just five this week, as Arizona refused to move into our range. Jacksonville is still at 7.5 though we’re going to give it another hour before we bet in hopes that it moves to 7 since there isn’t that much of a difference between 7.5 and 8 (UPDATE:  Jacksonville moved to -7).

Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston

Atlanta, -3 @ Oakland

Cleveland, -1.5 vs Baltimore

Jacksonville, -7 vs. @ Cincinatti

Tennessee, -5.5 vs. Green Bay

Great Luck!

Record, Year to Date: 13-10-2

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Week 7 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 14, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tampa Bay, has a value of 30.16520. Seattle, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tampa Bay should conceivably beat Seattle by 30 points at a neutral site. Chicago, the second ranked team has a value of 29.72651, meaning the Bucs would beat the Bears by approximately 0.44 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1.   Tampa Bay     – 30.16520     (+10)
2.   Chicago         – 29.72651     (+4)
3.   Tennessee     – 29.27333     (-2)
4.   Pittsburgh     – 27.45814     (+8)
5.   Indianapolis  – 27.28549     (+16)
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Week 6 Spread-Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 9, 2008

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

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Week 5 – 2/3 Ain’t Bad

Posted by deck104 on October 6, 2008

We’re pretty excited that our first week of testing our betting formula with real money worked out pretty well. Obviously we’re not going to win every bet we place, the goal is to be profitable over the course of the season and win more than 58% of our bets to turn a profit, again, with stress on “over the course of the season.”

Well, we’re off to a hot start here in week 5 as we won two out of our three contests and lost the game we most expected to lose: The 49ers getting only 3 from the Patriots. We won with Washington getting 6.5, a game that got a little out of hand in the first quarter but was all Washington from there on in (I was pretty confident on that one). We also won the nailbiting Steelers at Jaguars game last night, where Pittsburg won outright (you go Mr. Formula).
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We Took Washington

Posted by deck104 on October 6, 2008

When The Wizard and I got up early to take the San Francisco +3 game before our golf tournament Sunday we saw that the Washington spread and jumped to +6.5 so we took it. We didn’t have time to post about it because we were in a rush Sunday morning, but astute readers will notice that it falls within our spread range posted last thursday. Any and all spreads that move within our range we encourage you to take and we will certainly be taking. So, sorry for the late update but there it is.

 

ps. we won it.

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Steelers Bet Update

Posted by deck104 on October 4, 2008

So with Big Ben very questionable for tomorrow’s game, the spread for the Steelers jumped to them getting 5.5 which is a full point and a half out of our range, however we’ve already bet the game within our range.
This is the number one thing we were concerned about going into the season testing the formula. Because we tested everything using static spreads (on CBSSportsline.com they lock on Wednesday and do not change). Statistically there’s really no way for us to figure out what happens after those spreads, but common sense would suggest that since we were successful testing the formula using static spreads considering any number of those spreads could’ve moved outside our range, we should be okay.

Granted, we will keep an eye on this interaction throughout the season and should be able to make a decision about it based on what we find.

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