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Posts Tagged ‘Denver Broncos’

Week 12 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

After another frustrating week we’ve decided to mix things up a bit seeing how this is our ‘test’ season and we’re still working out kinks.

Now instead of giving you what each model outputs and messing around with ranges that don’t make a whole lot of sense (“why would I take Denver at +3 but not +6??”), we’re just going to give you the worst possible spread for the games that qualify, the confidence level, and any other pertinent information that you might need to bet.

As always post any questions or email us.

 

Chicago, -8 and better @ St. Louis – Confidence Level I

 

Cleveland, -4 and better vs. Houston – Confidence Level I

 

Denver, -10 and better vs. Oakland – Confidence Level I

 

Indianapolis, +2 and better @ San Diego – Confidence Level I

 

Tampa Bay, -9 and better @ Detroit – Confidence Level II

 

Tennessee, -6 and better vs. New York Jets – Confidence Level II

 

Green Bay, +2 and better @ New Orleans – Confidence Level II

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Monday Morning – Week 7 Recap

Posted by deck104 on October 20, 2008

We didnt get a chance to post this up yesterday but on Sunday morning the Tampa Bay spread moved into our range and we took it. We also got the Steelers spread on Saturday night really late but I don’t remember if I posted that up yet or not, but there ya go.

The Wizard was a little worried about having 9 bets on the table this week, clearly more than we were expecting for any given week of the NFL season but with the new model comes about 3 more bets per week and I had faith that we wouldn’t completely bottom out and we didnt.

We’re 4-3-1 so far with the push coming late, late last night to the point I’m kind of pissed off about it. So far we haven’t been burned by junktime scoring and we weren’t exactly burned by it last night either, but Obviously I’d rather be 5-3 than 4-3-1. I’ll go backwards and cover the games

Tampa Bay -10 vs. Seattle – Push

The Bucs were off and running early when I was flipping between the two Tampa Bay games of the night (the other being the Sox game). 17-3 late in the game and I was really confident that we finally had a game we weren’t going to sweat out (it seems that either we know we’ve lost early, or we’re sweating it out til the end). Of course, Julius Jones hadn’t done shit all day and then all of a sudden in the final drive with less than five minutes late he looks like he hadn’t taken a handoff all night. He had about 50 yards on two runs and set the Seahawks up for an easy rollout touchdown pass and the Push was on.

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
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Week 6 Updates

Posted by mrformula on October 10, 2008

The Jets game moved to -9 with Palmer being out. That fell in our range, so we bet it. Arizona also moved to +5 so we bet that as well. Here are the games we’ve bet so far this week:

Baltimore +4.5 at -110

Philadelphia at -5 at -110

Carolina +1.5 at -110

New Orleans at -7 at -110

Arizona + 5 at -110

NY Jets -9 at -110

Denver -3 at -120

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Week 6 Spread-Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 9, 2008

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

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