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Posts Tagged ‘Cleveland’

Week 11 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 13, 2008

Here are this weeks picks. There’s a lot of action. A lot of confidence I games, but also two Confidence Level III games, which is pretty exciting. If you need to read up on our confidence system, check it out here.

 

Thursday Night Action!

New York Jets, +3 @ New England — Confidence Level I

Take the Jets, +3  to +7.5, also +11 and better

This is a big time AFC East matchup. The Pats are decimated by injuries and the Jets are starting to look up. They’ve got all the NFL talking heads drinking their kool-aid including Mr. Formula. We have this game at +105 odds, which is sweet.

 

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Week 11 – Early Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Well, The Wizard emailed me this morning and had this to say, ” week 11 is where the results have greatly improved in past years.  In the past 7 years of data, we had a 57% winning percentage in weeks 5-10, and a 67% winning percentage in weeks 11-16, with week 11 being the clear seperating point between the two time periods.  So that could be a good sign going forward.  We were a little low in weeks 5-10 (53%), so hopefully we can be a little high going forward, or at least around what we usually do (if we go 67% the rest of the way, we’ll be looking good on the season).”

That Email got me excited for the next 6 weeks of football, and I’m already a guy who gets excited about watching, writing about, and betting on football.

So beacuse we run everything on Tuesday but it takes a while to get everything up and running, we don’t usually post this stuff until Thursday, but because we want our readers to get an early jump on action that we think needs early action jumped on, we’re posting this up today, Tuesday afternoon.

Click inside to see the bets!

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Week 10 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 6, 2008

Every week we post point spread ranges that get spit out by Mr. Formula’s two betting models. The reason we use two models is so that we can maximize the number of games we bet at the greatest possible win percentage.

We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

A really light week this week, with three sure bets with an additional two games that could move into our range. Then there’s the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, which is a total wildcard as there’s no spread posted as of yet.

As always, below each game listed is how each model feels about each team, when you should bet them and when you shouldnt.

 

Games to Bet:

Thursday Night Football

Cleveland, -3 vs. Denver – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take CLE from -7.5 to -11
Model 2 – Take CLE from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better
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Neither model would take Denver getting anything less than three scores, which isn’t going to happen vs. a Brady Quinn led Cleveland Browns team that has looked horrible last year.

This is the third time we’ve bet on the Browns this year and we’re 1-1 with them. I am almost glad I don’t have NFL network to be able to watch this on. But, I will say that the Broncos are one of the teams I’d like to see the young Brady Quinn face in his first NFL start, their Defense stinks on ice.

 

Regularly Scheduled Football

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Atlanta, -1 vs. New Orleans – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take ATL from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from -0.5 to +1, also +4.5 and better

The earliest either model would take New Orleans is +13 which is not going to happen against the Falcons.

The Falcons are a different team at home even though they have started to win on the road. Turner and Ryan are beasts in hotlanta and the Saints are wishy-washy as hell this year. I feel like this is going to be a shootout, but a shootout Atlanta can win as the Falcons D is a little bit better than the Saints D, it’s going to come down to whether or not Matty Ryan can hang with Drew Brees.

Another interesting note about this game, we’re currently waiting to see if it will move a half point in the Saints favor. If it does, it’ll be a Confidence Level III game, the closest this site comes to picking a LOCK of the week. Confidence Level III games are 2-1 this year and 25-7 since 2002.

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Carolina, -9.5 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Carolina from -16 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take Carolina from -10.5 to -9, also -5.5 and better

Niether model likes the Raiders getting anything but nearly four scores (+23 is the best either would grab them at) which just isn’t going to happen, even if Carolina is one of the best teams in the league.

It seems like Mr. Formula is taking anyone playing the Raiders recently. We’ve already bet this game for fears that it would move to -10, which is clearly worse than -9.5 for push reasons, also it’s easier to win by 10 points than it is to win by 11, especially against trashy teams that go down two touchdowns and are able to score a TD in junktime to screw up gamblers’ days.

 

Games to Watch

Arizona, -9.5 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Never
Model 2 – Take ARI from -11.5 to -10, also -6.5 and better

Model 1 would never suggest Arizona since it outputs to take the Cardinals at spreads greater than -10, and we never bet more than 10 point favorites.

Also, the best either model would take the 49ers is +24, so that’s not going to happen. The Arizona game is actually one we think will move into our range, which is dangerous because it would be at that magic number of 10 points. We really like the Cards from a betting standpoint with their schedule, we really liked them last week but the model didn’t take them.

 

Miami, -8.5 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Miami from -8 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both Models suggest Seattle at well over two scores, so we won’t be seeing that happen.

This game has already moved a half point in our direction, and if it moves another half point it’ll be a Confidence Level I pick so we’re keeping an eye on it.

 

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh – No spread available

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -2.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both models only suggest the Colts at more than two scores and we don’t expect to see that, but if the Pittsburgh game is anywhere within our ranges we’ll be jumping on it. There’s also a good chance this ends up a confidence level III game. In any event, expect an update by Sunday.

 

There are no other games even close to our ranges, and in an effort to make this site less confusing and to keep it updated with pertinent information, we’re going to stop there. The Jets were a possible team to watch, but that spread has actually started moving further away from our ranges, so we’ve unflagged it.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the week about how everything’s going and what’s happening, until then- bet well.

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Week 9 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 30, 2008

Busy week for all of us here at the Helices Posit, but we can’t go without are spread ranges. We’ve got another confidence 3 pick this week, which is pretty exciting because I’m looking for retribution after the Patriots blowout of the Broncos which came out of nowhere.

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So far we’re looking at 5 games so far with another few to keep an eye on. We’ve already bet four of the games and we’re kind of waiting to see if we can get better on the fifth, but you’ll find out more of that below. So let’s get to it.

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Please excuse all the dots but I’m really, really sick of spending like an hour spacing this thing out when wordpress just keeps mashing it all together again.

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Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston – Confidence Level III

Model 1 – Take Minnesota from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Minnesota from from -1 to -4.5, also -6 and better

Model 1 – Take Houston from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take Houston from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5


Gotta love a confidence level 3 game. We jumped on this game since the spread was right at the edge of the model #2 output. Houston has been playing pretty well as of late so I’m a little surprised, but it’s a less than a touchdown spread with Gus & Co. rested and playing well themselves.

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
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