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Posts Tagged ‘betting model’

Week 14 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 27.52162. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning The Giants should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.61108, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1 point at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  NY Giants     – 27.56162
2.  Tennessee   – 26.61108
3.  Baltimore     – 26.19647
4.  Pittsburgh   – 25.66657
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.74425
6.  Philadelphia  – 23.30936
7.  Green Bay     – 21.76834
8.  Carolina      – 21.14588
9.  Atlanta       – 21.07997
10. Minnesota     – 20.93014
11. Indianapolis  – 20.42818
12. New Orleans   – 19.88712
13. NY Jets       – 19.22131
14. Dallas        – 18.72774
15. Chicago       – 18.40959
16. San Diego     – 17.94695
17. Arizona       – 17.43722
18. New England   – 16.00247
19. Cleveland     – 15.66974
20. Washington    – 15.57922
21. Houston   – 15.22528
22. Jacksonville  – 14.67220
23. Buffalo       – 13.77820
24. Miami         – 13.64310
25. Denver        – 13.13531
26. San Francisco – 10.13593
27. Cincinatti    –  8.72370
28. Oakland       –  8.35143
29. Seattle       –  8.23424
30. Kansas City   –  7.02378
31. Detroit       –  3.06179
32. St. Louis     –  0.00000
     

Not a lot of movement in the top five of the power rankings.  Pretty surprised to see New Orleans as high as they were and Carolina lower than Tampa, but I’m sure those will shake themselves out this weekend as the NFC South all play each other on Sunday.  I was also surprised to see Arizona below a bunch of NFC teams that I don’t think they should be below (NO, Chi; but also SD).

 

Our bets for the week will be posted concurrently. Been swamped at work today. Actually thought I had an easy day today; I don’t, but screw it.

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Week 10 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 6, 2008

Every week we post point spread ranges that get spit out by Mr. Formula’s two betting models. The reason we use two models is so that we can maximize the number of games we bet at the greatest possible win percentage.

We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

A really light week this week, with three sure bets with an additional two games that could move into our range. Then there’s the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, which is a total wildcard as there’s no spread posted as of yet.

As always, below each game listed is how each model feels about each team, when you should bet them and when you shouldnt.

 

Games to Bet:

Thursday Night Football

Cleveland, -3 vs. Denver – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take CLE from -7.5 to -11
Model 2 – Take CLE from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better
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Neither model would take Denver getting anything less than three scores, which isn’t going to happen vs. a Brady Quinn led Cleveland Browns team that has looked horrible last year.

This is the third time we’ve bet on the Browns this year and we’re 1-1 with them. I am almost glad I don’t have NFL network to be able to watch this on. But, I will say that the Broncos are one of the teams I’d like to see the young Brady Quinn face in his first NFL start, their Defense stinks on ice.

 

Regularly Scheduled Football

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Atlanta, -1 vs. New Orleans – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take ATL from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from -0.5 to +1, also +4.5 and better

The earliest either model would take New Orleans is +13 which is not going to happen against the Falcons.

The Falcons are a different team at home even though they have started to win on the road. Turner and Ryan are beasts in hotlanta and the Saints are wishy-washy as hell this year. I feel like this is going to be a shootout, but a shootout Atlanta can win as the Falcons D is a little bit better than the Saints D, it’s going to come down to whether or not Matty Ryan can hang with Drew Brees.

Another interesting note about this game, we’re currently waiting to see if it will move a half point in the Saints favor. If it does, it’ll be a Confidence Level III game, the closest this site comes to picking a LOCK of the week. Confidence Level III games are 2-1 this year and 25-7 since 2002.

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Carolina, -9.5 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Carolina from -16 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take Carolina from -10.5 to -9, also -5.5 and better

Niether model likes the Raiders getting anything but nearly four scores (+23 is the best either would grab them at) which just isn’t going to happen, even if Carolina is one of the best teams in the league.

It seems like Mr. Formula is taking anyone playing the Raiders recently. We’ve already bet this game for fears that it would move to -10, which is clearly worse than -9.5 for push reasons, also it’s easier to win by 10 points than it is to win by 11, especially against trashy teams that go down two touchdowns and are able to score a TD in junktime to screw up gamblers’ days.

 

Games to Watch

Arizona, -9.5 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Never
Model 2 – Take ARI from -11.5 to -10, also -6.5 and better

Model 1 would never suggest Arizona since it outputs to take the Cardinals at spreads greater than -10, and we never bet more than 10 point favorites.

Also, the best either model would take the 49ers is +24, so that’s not going to happen. The Arizona game is actually one we think will move into our range, which is dangerous because it would be at that magic number of 10 points. We really like the Cards from a betting standpoint with their schedule, we really liked them last week but the model didn’t take them.

 

Miami, -8.5 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Miami from -8 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both Models suggest Seattle at well over two scores, so we won’t be seeing that happen.

This game has already moved a half point in our direction, and if it moves another half point it’ll be a Confidence Level I pick so we’re keeping an eye on it.

 

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh – No spread available

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -2.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both models only suggest the Colts at more than two scores and we don’t expect to see that, but if the Pittsburgh game is anywhere within our ranges we’ll be jumping on it. There’s also a good chance this ends up a confidence level III game. In any event, expect an update by Sunday.

 

There are no other games even close to our ranges, and in an effort to make this site less confusing and to keep it updated with pertinent information, we’re going to stop there. The Jets were a possible team to watch, but that spread has actually started moving further away from our ranges, so we’ve unflagged it.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the week about how everything’s going and what’s happening, until then- bet well.

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Week 10 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 23.29182. Oakland, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Oakland by 23 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 23.12009, meaning the Steelers “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.17 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Pittsburgh   – 23.29182 (+2)
2.  Tennessee   – 23.12009  (–)
3.  Philadelphia – 22.16731 (+2)
4.  N.Y. Giants  – 21.62066  (–)
5.  Chicago       – 20.56298  (-4)
Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

  Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
Read the rest of this entry »

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