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Posts Tagged ‘Baltimore’

Week 13 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 26.55056. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 26.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 25.17013, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1.4 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  N.Y. Giants   – 26.55056
2.  Tennessee     – 25.17013
3.  Baltimore     – 24.19397
4.  Pittsburgh    – 23.75267
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.70213
6.  N.Y. Jets     – 22.50439
7.  Green Bay     – 22.04002
8.  Carolina      – 20.75316
9.  Atlanta       – 20.38514
10. PHiladelphia  – 20.00413
11. Indianapolis  – 19.90332
12. Arizona       – 19.81332
13. Chicago       – 19.47601
14. Minnesota     – 19.43752
15. New Olreans   – 19.37883
16. San Diego     – 18.80609
17. New England   – 18.18911
18. Dallas        – 17.50090
19. Buffalo       – 15.99893
20. Washington    – 15.74136
21. Miami         – 15.18219
22. Cleveland     – 15.00144
23. Jacksonville  – 14.98657
24. Houston       – 13.84310
25. Denver        – 11.22853
26. Seattle       –  9.52927
27. San Francisco –  9.49379
28. Oakland       –  9.30297
29. Cincinnati    –  9.22352
30. Kansas City   –  6.47465
31. Detroit       –  4.32118
32. St. Louis    – 0.0000

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

  Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 6 Updates

Posted by mrformula on October 10, 2008

The Jets game moved to -9 with Palmer being out. That fell in our range, so we bet it. Arizona also moved to +5 so we bet that as well. Here are the games we’ve bet so far this week:

Baltimore +4.5 at -110

Philadelphia at -5 at -110

Carolina +1.5 at -110

New Orleans at -7 at -110

Arizona + 5 at -110

NY Jets -9 at -110

Denver -3 at -120

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Week 6 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 7, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 40.39180. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 40 points at a neutral site. Carolina, the second ranked team has a value of 40.18738, meaning Tennessee would beat the Panthers by approximately 0.21 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1 Tennessee 40.39180
2 Carolina 40.18738
3 Washington 39.64973
4 N.Y. Giants 38.65173
5 Dallas 38.22607
Read the rest of this entry »

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