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Posts Tagged ‘Baltimore Ravens’

Week 14 Bets

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

In case you haven’t checked in over here in a couple weeks, we’ve changed up what we’re doing here in an effort to improve our system, make it simple, less nonsensical, and more profitable.

Now instead of a bunch of spread-ranges and model outputs, we’re just giving you our bets, the worst-possible line at which you should take the team we’re betting, and how confident we are in it, I, II, and III. The way our confidence levels are explained are the same: we still use the same two models, and when both models like the game it’s a confidence level III bet. We’ve got one of those this week and so far this year we’ve only missed on two of these (I think we’re 6-2 but The Wizard keeps all that statistical information, I’m not sure where that stuff is).

Anyway, five bets this week, up from two last wek – and here’s what we’re taking:

Confidence Level I:

New York Giants, -8 or better vs. Philadelphia

We were actually able to nab this game at -6.5 which is huge for us. Anytime you can get this at less than a touchdown you can nab it. Philly is a hot pick after going off last week so the spread should stay closer than 8 in most places.

 

New England, -5 or better @ Seattle 

The Pats are coming off a pretty sour loss but are playing a great team to recover from. Even with Hasselbeck back (5 times fast?) the Seahawks are not looking good. Their 12th man could pose a problem for an offensive line that is not playing very well and a “rookie” quarterback. Either way this is a kitchen sink situation for the Patriots, they can’t lose anymore.

 

Confidence Level II:

Minnesota, -10 or better @ Detroit

Not only are the Lions hapless, they play in the ugliest, least inspiring uniforms in the league. They are seriously just plain blue with white letters, no colored borders or a hint of black on any of them. It’s annoying. Also annoying: Daunte Culpepper. I don’t know why, he just is.

 

Baltimore, -6 or better vs. Washington

The Ravens are looking good and it seems like spreadmakers think it’s all over for the Skins who are already eliminated from winning their division. Portis is cold. Santana Moss has been non-existant, and Campbell is auditioning to be Matt Cassel’s backup next year in the nation’s capital.

 

Confidence Level III

Pittsburgh, -3 or better vs. Dallas

I was surprised that this was a confidence level III game since I hate Pittsburgh and think they suck no matter what. I also think Dallas is pretty good but there’s a reason why I write the blog posts and not the formulas.

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

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Week 6 Updates

Posted by mrformula on October 10, 2008

The Jets game moved to -9 with Palmer being out. That fell in our range, so we bet it. Arizona also moved to +5 so we bet that as well. Here are the games we’ve bet so far this week:

Baltimore +4.5 at -110

Philadelphia at -5 at -110

Carolina +1.5 at -110

New Orleans at -7 at -110

Arizona + 5 at -110

NY Jets -9 at -110

Denver -3 at -120

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Week 6 Spread-Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 9, 2008

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

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Week 6 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 7, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 40.39180. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 40 points at a neutral site. Carolina, the second ranked team has a value of 40.18738, meaning Tennessee would beat the Panthers by approximately 0.21 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1 Tennessee 40.39180
2 Carolina 40.18738
3 Washington 39.64973
4 N.Y. Giants 38.65173
5 Dallas 38.22607
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