Week 6 Spread-Ranges

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

Week 5 – 2/3 Ain’t Bad

We’re pretty excited that our first week of testing our betting formula with real money worked out pretty well. Obviously we’re not going to win every bet we place, the goal is to be profitable over the course of the season and win more than 58% of our bets to turn a profit, again, with stress on “over the course of the season.”

Well, we’re off to a hot start here in week 5 as we won two out of our three contests and lost the game we most expected to lose: The 49ers getting only 3 from the Patriots. We won with Washington getting 6.5, a game that got a little out of hand in the first quarter but was all Washington from there on in (I was pretty confident on that one). We also won the nailbiting Steelers at Jaguars game last night, where Pittsburg won outright (you go Mr. Formula).

Steelers Bet Update

So with Big Ben very questionable for tomorrow’s game, the spread for the Steelers jumped to them getting 5.5 which is a full point and a half out of our range, however we’ve already bet the game within our range.
This is the number one thing we were concerned about going into the season testing the formula. Because we tested everything using static spreads (on CBSSportsline.com they lock on Wednesday and do not change). Statistically there’s really no way for us to figure out what happens after those spreads, but common sense would suggest that since we were successful testing the formula using static spreads considering any number of those spreads could’ve moved outside our range, we should be okay.

Granted, we will keep an eye on this interaction throughout the season and should be able to make a decision about it based on what we find.

Updates – Spreads and Blog

There’s some new spread action right now, reason enough to make a post to update everyone on what’s happening with the spreads as we head into the weekend.

First off, Atlanta/Green Bay finally has a spread, unfortunately (or fortunately, if you like money) it’s Atlanta +4 so we won’t be betting it.

Washington’s spread however moved from +5.5 to +6, so we’re checking this spread every couple hours to see if it moves another half a point to WSH +6.5 in which case we’d take it.

We’re still waiting on San Francisco to get more points, though we’re still looking at risking $100 to win $105 right now so that ain’t bad. We’ll probably bet this on Sunday but we are expecting this spread to move big over the weekend.

Also, we’re building the site as we go here, mainly because this is a work-in-progress anyway, but also because we’ve only recently begun to think about chronicling this whole project. We’re creating pages for every team with pertinent betting information: the team site, the team depth chart, the team injury reports and the team against the spread in numerous situations over the past 10 years in different increments. We’ve got all of the AFC East and some of the AFC North done (though the links for the Jets and Dolphins aren’t done because we can’t load flash on my work computers).

Anyhow, that’s the scoop around here. Bet wisely.

Week 5 NFL Spread Ranges

Below are the spreads you want to find for week five. One thing you have to remember is that it’s not a good thing to be betting on every game. I have plenty of friends who want to take the action on every game, make parlays, take overs and unders, bet every single night game or game they have on TV. That’s not the way to make money. Luckily for us, this system is the way to make money.

One thing to remember regarding this is that a lot of the spreads you’ll find below say to only bet on a game when you are getting points, regardless of what team you take. If the spread-range seems astronomical it’s because Mr. Formula wants you to stay away from that game. Remember this isn’t a tool to use to bet on every game, just the ones it wants us to. Normally week 5 presents us with very few games to bet on, and that’s nothing different in 2008.