Archive for the ‘Point Spreads’ Category

Week 14 Bets

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

In case you haven’t checked in over here in a couple weeks, we’ve changed up what we’re doing here in an effort to improve our system, make it simple, less nonsensical, and more profitable.

Now instead of a bunch of spread-ranges and model outputs, we’re just giving you our bets, the worst-possible line at which you should take the team we’re betting, and how confident we are in it, I, II, and III. The way our confidence levels are explained are the same: we still use the same two models, and when both models like the game it’s a confidence level III bet. We’ve got one of those this week and so far this year we’ve only missed on two of these (I think we’re 6-2 but The Wizard keeps all that statistical information, I’m not sure where that stuff is).

Anyway, five bets this week, up from two last wek – and here’s what we’re taking:

Confidence Level I:

New York Giants, -8 or better vs. Philadelphia

We were actually able to nab this game at -6.5 which is huge for us. Anytime you can get this at less than a touchdown you can nab it. Philly is a hot pick after going off last week so the spread should stay closer than 8 in most places.


New England, -5 or better @ Seattle 

The Pats are coming off a pretty sour loss but are playing a great team to recover from. Even with Hasselbeck back (5 times fast?) the Seahawks are not looking good. Their 12th man could pose a problem for an offensive line that is not playing very well and a “rookie” quarterback. Either way this is a kitchen sink situation for the Patriots, they can’t lose anymore.


Confidence Level II:

Minnesota, -10 or better @ Detroit

Not only are the Lions hapless, they play in the ugliest, least inspiring uniforms in the league. They are seriously just plain blue with white letters, no colored borders or a hint of black on any of them. It’s annoying. Also annoying: Daunte Culpepper. I don’t know why, he just is.


Baltimore, -6 or better vs. Washington

The Ravens are looking good and it seems like spreadmakers think it’s all over for the Skins who are already eliminated from winning their division. Portis is cold. Santana Moss has been non-existant, and Campbell is auditioning to be Matt Cassel’s backup next year in the nation’s capital.


Confidence Level III

Pittsburgh, -3 or better vs. Dallas

I was surprised that this was a confidence level III game since I hate Pittsburgh and think they suck no matter what. I also think Dallas is pretty good but there’s a reason why I write the blog posts and not the formulas.


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Week 12 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

After another frustrating week we’ve decided to mix things up a bit seeing how this is our ‘test’ season and we’re still working out kinks.

Now instead of giving you what each model outputs and messing around with ranges that don’t make a whole lot of sense (“why would I take Denver at +3 but not +6??”), we’re just going to give you the worst possible spread for the games that qualify, the confidence level, and any other pertinent information that you might need to bet.

As always post any questions or email us.


Chicago, -8 and better @ St. Louis – Confidence Level I


Cleveland, -4 and better vs. Houston – Confidence Level I


Denver, -10 and better vs. Oakland – Confidence Level I


Indianapolis, +2 and better @ San Diego – Confidence Level I


Tampa Bay, -9 and better @ Detroit – Confidence Level II


Tennessee, -6 and better vs. New York Jets – Confidence Level II


Green Bay, +2 and better @ New Orleans – Confidence Level II

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Week 11 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 13, 2008

Here are this weeks picks. There’s a lot of action. A lot of confidence I games, but also two Confidence Level III games, which is pretty exciting. If you need to read up on our confidence system, check it out here.


Thursday Night Action!

New York Jets, +3 @ New England — Confidence Level I

Take the Jets, +3  to +7.5, also +11 and better

This is a big time AFC East matchup. The Pats are decimated by injuries and the Jets are starting to look up. They’ve got all the NFL talking heads drinking their kool-aid including Mr. Formula. We have this game at +105 odds, which is sweet.


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Week 11 – Early Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Well, The Wizard emailed me this morning and had this to say, ” week 11 is where the results have greatly improved in past years.  In the past 7 years of data, we had a 57% winning percentage in weeks 5-10, and a 67% winning percentage in weeks 11-16, with week 11 being the clear seperating point between the two time periods.  So that could be a good sign going forward.  We were a little low in weeks 5-10 (53%), so hopefully we can be a little high going forward, or at least around what we usually do (if we go 67% the rest of the way, we’ll be looking good on the season).”

That Email got me excited for the next 6 weeks of football, and I’m already a guy who gets excited about watching, writing about, and betting on football.

So beacuse we run everything on Tuesday but it takes a while to get everything up and running, we don’t usually post this stuff until Thursday, but because we want our readers to get an early jump on action that we think needs early action jumped on, we’re posting this up today, Tuesday afternoon.

Click inside to see the bets!

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.


1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
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Week 10 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 6, 2008

Every week we post point spread ranges that get spit out by Mr. Formula’s two betting models. The reason we use two models is so that we can maximize the number of games we bet at the greatest possible win percentage.

We assign a confidence level to each bet we make depending what model we used for the bet. A better explanation of how everything works can be found on this page here. If you have any other questions, feel free to contact us, or post a comment anywhere on the site.

A really light week this week, with three sure bets with an additional two games that could move into our range. Then there’s the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, which is a total wildcard as there’s no spread posted as of yet.

As always, below each game listed is how each model feels about each team, when you should bet them and when you shouldnt.


Games to Bet:

Thursday Night Football

Cleveland, -3 vs. Denver – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take CLE from -7.5 to -11
Model 2 – Take CLE from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better

Neither model would take Denver getting anything less than three scores, which isn’t going to happen vs. a Brady Quinn led Cleveland Browns team that has looked horrible last year.

This is the third time we’ve bet on the Browns this year and we’re 1-1 with them. I am almost glad I don’t have NFL network to be able to watch this on. But, I will say that the Broncos are one of the teams I’d like to see the young Brady Quinn face in his first NFL start, their Defense stinks on ice.


Regularly Scheduled Football

Atlanta, -1 vs. New Orleans – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take ATL from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from -0.5 to +1, also +4.5 and better

The earliest either model would take New Orleans is +13 which is not going to happen against the Falcons.

The Falcons are a different team at home even though they have started to win on the road. Turner and Ryan are beasts in hotlanta and the Saints are wishy-washy as hell this year. I feel like this is going to be a shootout, but a shootout Atlanta can win as the Falcons D is a little bit better than the Saints D, it’s going to come down to whether or not Matty Ryan can hang with Drew Brees.

Another interesting note about this game, we’re currently waiting to see if it will move a half point in the Saints favor. If it does, it’ll be a Confidence Level III game, the closest this site comes to picking a LOCK of the week. Confidence Level III games are 2-1 this year and 25-7 since 2002.


Carolina, -9.5 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Carolina from -16 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take Carolina from -10.5 to -9, also -5.5 and better

Niether model likes the Raiders getting anything but nearly four scores (+23 is the best either would grab them at) which just isn’t going to happen, even if Carolina is one of the best teams in the league.

It seems like Mr. Formula is taking anyone playing the Raiders recently. We’ve already bet this game for fears that it would move to -10, which is clearly worse than -9.5 for push reasons, also it’s easier to win by 10 points than it is to win by 11, especially against trashy teams that go down two touchdowns and are able to score a TD in junktime to screw up gamblers’ days.


Games to Watch

Arizona, -9.5 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Never
Model 2 – Take ARI from -11.5 to -10, also -6.5 and better

Model 1 would never suggest Arizona since it outputs to take the Cardinals at spreads greater than -10, and we never bet more than 10 point favorites.

Also, the best either model would take the 49ers is +24, so that’s not going to happen. The Arizona game is actually one we think will move into our range, which is dangerous because it would be at that magic number of 10 points. We really like the Cards from a betting standpoint with their schedule, we really liked them last week but the model didn’t take them.


Miami, -8.5 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Miami from -8 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both Models suggest Seattle at well over two scores, so we won’t be seeing that happen.

This game has already moved a half point in our direction, and if it moves another half point it’ll be a Confidence Level I pick so we’re keeping an eye on it.


Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh – No spread available

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -2.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -5.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

Both models only suggest the Colts at more than two scores and we don’t expect to see that, but if the Pittsburgh game is anywhere within our ranges we’ll be jumping on it. There’s also a good chance this ends up a confidence level III game. In any event, expect an update by Sunday.


There are no other games even close to our ranges, and in an effort to make this site less confusing and to keep it updated with pertinent information, we’re going to stop there. The Jets were a possible team to watch, but that spread has actually started moving further away from our ranges, so we’ve unflagged it.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the week about how everything’s going and what’s happening, until then- bet well.

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Week 9 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 30, 2008

Busy week for all of us here at the Helices Posit, but we can’t go without are spread ranges. We’ve got another confidence 3 pick this week, which is pretty exciting because I’m looking for retribution after the Patriots blowout of the Broncos which came out of nowhere.

So far we’re looking at 5 games so far with another few to keep an eye on. We’ve already bet four of the games and we’re kind of waiting to see if we can get better on the fifth, but you’ll find out more of that below. So let’s get to it.


Please excuse all the dots but I’m really, really sick of spending like an hour spacing this thing out when wordpress just keeps mashing it all together again.



Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston – Confidence Level III

Model 1 – Take Minnesota from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Minnesota from from -1 to -4.5, also -6 and better

Model 1 – Take Houston from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take Houston from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5

Gotta love a confidence level 3 game. We jumped on this game since the spread was right at the edge of the model #2 output. Houston has been playing pretty well as of late so I’m a little surprised, but it’s a less than a touchdown spread with Gus & Co. rested and playing well themselves.


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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.

Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.


New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

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Sunday Morning Action

Posted by deck104 on October 19, 2008

Well I woke up a little early and the Bucs spread has moved to -10 and thus in our range. It was mired at 10.5 all week and if you don’t already know we never take a favorite giving more than 10 points. Since we’ve already bet the Tennessee game, we’re at 8 total games for today and tomorrow.

The Houston spread actually moved the other way so count that one out for this weekend and while the Pittsburgh spread is still within a half point of our range it hasn’t moved all week and we’re not expecting to get to nine games for week 7. Bet well.

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (, you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
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