Archive for December, 2008

Week 14 Bets

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

In case you haven’t checked in over here in a couple weeks, we’ve changed up what we’re doing here in an effort to improve our system, make it simple, less nonsensical, and more profitable.

Now instead of a bunch of spread-ranges and model outputs, we’re just giving you our bets, the worst-possible line at which you should take the team we’re betting, and how confident we are in it, I, II, and III. The way our confidence levels are explained are the same: we still use the same two models, and when both models like the game it’s a confidence level III bet. We’ve got one of those this week and so far this year we’ve only missed on two of these (I think we’re 6-2 but The Wizard keeps all that statistical information, I’m not sure where that stuff is).

Anyway, five bets this week, up from two last wek – and here’s what we’re taking:

Confidence Level I:

New York Giants, -8 or better vs. Philadelphia

We were actually able to nab this game at -6.5 which is huge for us. Anytime you can get this at less than a touchdown you can nab it. Philly is a hot pick after going off last week so the spread should stay closer than 8 in most places.


New England, -5 or better @ Seattle 

The Pats are coming off a pretty sour loss but are playing a great team to recover from. Even with Hasselbeck back (5 times fast?) the Seahawks are not looking good. Their 12th man could pose a problem for an offensive line that is not playing very well and a “rookie” quarterback. Either way this is a kitchen sink situation for the Patriots, they can’t lose anymore.


Confidence Level II:

Minnesota, -10 or better @ Detroit

Not only are the Lions hapless, they play in the ugliest, least inspiring uniforms in the league. They are seriously just plain blue with white letters, no colored borders or a hint of black on any of them. It’s annoying. Also annoying: Daunte Culpepper. I don’t know why, he just is.


Baltimore, -6 or better vs. Washington

The Ravens are looking good and it seems like spreadmakers think it’s all over for the Skins who are already eliminated from winning their division. Portis is cold. Santana Moss has been non-existant, and Campbell is auditioning to be Matt Cassel’s backup next year in the nation’s capital.


Confidence Level III

Pittsburgh, -3 or better vs. Dallas

I was surprised that this was a confidence level III game since I hate Pittsburgh and think they suck no matter what. I also think Dallas is pretty good but there’s a reason why I write the blog posts and not the formulas.


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Week 14 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 27.52162. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning The Giants should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.61108, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1 point at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.


1.  NY Giants     – 27.56162
2.  Tennessee   – 26.61108
3.  Baltimore     – 26.19647
4.  Pittsburgh   – 25.66657
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.74425
6.  Philadelphia  – 23.30936
7.  Green Bay     – 21.76834
8.  Carolina      – 21.14588
9.  Atlanta       – 21.07997
10. Minnesota     – 20.93014
11. Indianapolis  – 20.42818
12. New Orleans   – 19.88712
13. NY Jets       – 19.22131
14. Dallas        – 18.72774
15. Chicago       – 18.40959
16. San Diego     – 17.94695
17. Arizona       – 17.43722
18. New England   – 16.00247
19. Cleveland     – 15.66974
20. Washington    – 15.57922
21. Houston   – 15.22528
22. Jacksonville  – 14.67220
23. Buffalo       – 13.77820
24. Miami         – 13.64310
25. Denver        – 13.13531
26. San Francisco – 10.13593
27. Cincinatti    –  8.72370
28. Oakland       –  8.35143
29. Seattle       –  8.23424
30. Kansas City   –  7.02378
31. Detroit       –  3.06179
32. St. Louis     –  0.00000

Not a lot of movement in the top five of the power rankings.  Pretty surprised to see New Orleans as high as they were and Carolina lower than Tampa, but I’m sure those will shake themselves out this weekend as the NFC South all play each other on Sunday.  I was also surprised to see Arizona below a bunch of NFC teams that I don’t think they should be below (NO, Chi; but also SD).


Our bets for the week will be posted concurrently. Been swamped at work today. Actually thought I had an easy day today; I don’t, but screw it.

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