Week 11 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 13, 2008

Here are this weeks picks. There’s a lot of action. A lot of confidence I games, but also two Confidence Level III games, which is pretty exciting. If you need to read up on our confidence system, check it out here.


Thursday Night Action!

New York Jets, +3 @ New England — Confidence Level I

Take the Jets, +3  to +7.5, also +11 and better

This is a big time AFC East matchup. The Pats are decimated by injuries and the Jets are starting to look up. They’ve got all the NFL talking heads drinking their kool-aid including Mr. Formula. We have this game at +105 odds, which is sweet.


Regular Sunday Action!

Tampa Bay, -4 vs Minnesota – Confidence Level III

Take Tampa Bay from -6 to -2.5, also -0.5 and better

This game becomes a Confidence Level III bet anywhere between -5.5 and -4, so as long as you can nab the spread in that range you’re looking good.


Washington, EVEN vs. Dallas – Confidence Level III

Take Washington from -3 to +0.5, also +4.5 and better – Confidence Level III

I don’t buy into the “Washington is a road team” talk. This is a scary prospect with Romo in and Portis likely out, but as The Wizard reminded me last week, Dallas was starting to look bad even before the Romo injury. Washington does seem like a good team in all phases of the game, but how much does Portis’ dominance factor into that? If Portis plays I love this pick, and he’s played every week thus far. This is a divisional opponent, giving the game more importance; but, Washington is looking good for the playoffs, why jeopardize that?


Atlanta, -6 vs. Denver – Confidence Level I

Take Atlanta from -9.5 to -4, also -0.5 and better

We grabbed this game at -6, but it becomes a confidence level II pick from -5.5 to -4. This should be a real test of Atlanta’s defense: having to go up against two top-tier defenses in a row. They completely shut down New Orleans and they’ll have to do it again with the Broncos. They should be able to win a shootout at home, where Turner plays much better.


Arizona, -3 @ Seattle – Confidence Level I

Take Arizona from -5 to -0.5, also +3 and better

I like this bet a lot. Arizona has been covering really well aside from last week, which I think was more of an abberation than anything. Even Matt Hasselbeck returning doesn’t scare me making this bet. Even playing in Seattle against “12” men doesn’t scare me off this bet. Seattle is not good. Arizona is.


Indianapolis, -8 vs. Houston – Confidence Level I

Take Indy from -10 to -8, from -4 to -2.5, also +1 and better

Yeah, there is a pretty significant jump between the models. Model 1 expects a blowout, model 2 might realize what I realize in that Houston always plays Indy hard. However, Houston is a different team Schaubless. Steve Slaton is worn down, and that’s coming from their coach. Indy is coming off a big win, I like it. You should too.


Monday Night, Heart Stopping Action!!

Cleveland, +4 @ Buffalo – Confidence Level 1

Model 1: Take Cleveland from +2.5 to +6
Model 2: Take Cleveland from +7 to +8.5, also +12 and better

This literally could be heart-stopping action. Betting on the Browns is that harrowing. Hopefully the third time is the charm here as Romeo Crennell has burned us two weeks in a row now. There was some slight discrepancy in the models, but clearly you want to take Cleveland getting as many points as you can. In either event, you could have a life or death three hours if you bet the mortgage on Cleveland, so if you like excitement with your Monday nights, follow us and take this game.


Games to Watch

The following games are all within a point of our ranges.

Pittsburgh, -5.5 vs. San Diego

Take Pitt, -4.5 to -1, also +1.5 and better

This game becomes a confidence level II game if you can get it between -3.5 and -2.  Apparently Big Ben is going to play and the Steelers haven’t needed Willie Parker to win all season, they won’t need him this week. The offense/defense matchups are in our favor here.


Miami, -10.5 vs. Oakland

If this game moves to -9.5 then we’ll take it. It hasn’t moved all week, but if it moves to even 10 we’ll likely buy a half point to take it.


Tennessee, -3 @ Jacksonville

If this game somehow moves to -2 it will be a confidence level II game, but we don’t think it will. I’m amazed that the spread is this low, even if it is a divisional game. I think Jacksonville is the pits and I’m a David Garrard fan.




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