Week 11 – Early Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Well, The Wizard emailed me this morning and had this to say, ” week 11 is where the results have greatly improved in past years.  In the past 7 years of data, we had a 57% winning percentage in weeks 5-10, and a 67% winning percentage in weeks 11-16, with week 11 being the clear seperating point between the two time periods.  So that could be a good sign going forward.  We were a little low in weeks 5-10 (53%), so hopefully we can be a little high going forward, or at least around what we usually do (if we go 67% the rest of the way, we’ll be looking good on the season).”

That Email got me excited for the next 6 weeks of football, and I’m already a guy who gets excited about watching, writing about, and betting on football.

So beacuse we run everything on Tuesday but it takes a while to get everything up and running, we don’t usually post this stuff until Thursday, but because we want our readers to get an early jump on action that we think needs early action jumped on, we’re posting this up today, Tuesday afternoon.

Click inside to see the bets!

Arizona, -3 vs. Seattle – This game started at -2.5 but since we were both at work we couldn’t grab it then, and now it’s at -3. Since -3.5 is even worse than getting stuck at -3 when you could’ve had better odds, The Wizard ran home from work and placed some bets and this is where we have it. The official range is anywhere from -5 to -0.5. Youl should bet anything you get in that range, but obviously anything less than a fieldgoal is boucoup.  We also got this game at -105 which is hot.

NY Jets, +3 @ New England – we snagged this game because it’s at the edge of our range, and we don’t think it’s going to go anymore in the Jets favor. We also got it at +105 which is nice.

Tampa Bay, -4 vs. Minnesota – This is a confidence Level III game, so it’s one of our LOCKS of the year. But, if it moved a half a point in Minnesota’s favor it wouldn’t be as much of a lock, so we bet it this morning.

Indianapolis, -8 vs. Houston – -8 is the absolute best spread we could get and still bet Indy and we took it before oddsmakers came to their senses and gave the Texans even more points than this.

Cleveland, +4.5 vs. Buffalo – The NFL gods are testing us to keep taking cleveland when they suck so bad, and Romeo Crennell sucks so bad. This game was at 4, but when The Wizard went to bet, it was at +4.5 so we grabbed the extra point while we could. You could take Celveland anywhere from +2 to +6, and also from +7 to +8.5, or even +12.5 and better, but I urge you to take them with as much points as you possibly can. And also, to not watch the game, as you will likely go on a murderous rage if you do.

That’s it for now, obviously more detailed spread ranges later in the week, but since we love the readers we do have, we’re giving you this action as early as we can.


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