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Archive for November, 2008

Week 13 Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Really quick because I’m only home for a second before All Turkey’s Eve festivities.

Only two bets this week. Which is a nice change of pace. And I can ignore the browns for an entire weekend as I’m benching Jamal Lewis in fantasy sports in addition to not betting them.

So take Miami, -8 or better vs. St. Louis

or

Baltimore, -7 and better vs. Cincinatti

Happy Turkey

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Week 13 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 26.55056. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 26.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 25.17013, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1.4 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  N.Y. Giants   – 26.55056
2.  Tennessee     – 25.17013
3.  Baltimore     – 24.19397
4.  Pittsburgh    – 23.75267
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.70213
6.  N.Y. Jets     – 22.50439
7.  Green Bay     – 22.04002
8.  Carolina      – 20.75316
9.  Atlanta       – 20.38514
10. PHiladelphia  – 20.00413
11. Indianapolis  – 19.90332
12. Arizona       – 19.81332
13. Chicago       – 19.47601
14. Minnesota     – 19.43752
15. New Olreans   – 19.37883
16. San Diego     – 18.80609
17. New England   – 18.18911
18. Dallas        – 17.50090
19. Buffalo       – 15.99893
20. Washington    – 15.74136
21. Miami         – 15.18219
22. Cleveland     – 15.00144
23. Jacksonville  – 14.98657
24. Houston       – 13.84310
25. Denver        – 11.22853
26. Seattle       –  9.52927
27. San Francisco –  9.49379
28. Oakland       –  9.30297
29. Cincinnati    –  9.22352
30. Kansas City   –  6.47465
31. Detroit       –  4.32118
32. St. Louis    – 0.0000

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This week’s games

Posted by mrformula on November 22, 2008

Since we arleady placed our bets for the week, here they are:

Record Year to Date: 22-21-2

This weeks picks:

Cleveland -3 vs. Houston (-110)

Tennessee -5 vs. New York Jets (-110)

Tampa Bay – 8.5 @ Detroit (-110)

Chicago – 7.5 @ St. Louis (-110)

Denver -9.5 vs. Oakland (-110)

Indianapolis +2.5 @ San Diego (-110)

Green Bay +2.5 @ New Orleans (-110)

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Week 12 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

After another frustrating week we’ve decided to mix things up a bit seeing how this is our ‘test’ season and we’re still working out kinks.

Now instead of giving you what each model outputs and messing around with ranges that don’t make a whole lot of sense (“why would I take Denver at +3 but not +6??”), we’re just going to give you the worst possible spread for the games that qualify, the confidence level, and any other pertinent information that you might need to bet.

As always post any questions or email us.

 

Chicago, -8 and better @ St. Louis – Confidence Level I

 

Cleveland, -4 and better vs. Houston – Confidence Level I

 

Denver, -10 and better vs. Oakland – Confidence Level I

 

Indianapolis, +2 and better @ San Diego – Confidence Level I

 

Tampa Bay, -9 and better @ Detroit – Confidence Level II

 

Tennessee, -6 and better vs. New York Jets – Confidence Level II

 

Green Bay, +2 and better @ New Orleans – Confidence Level II

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Week 12 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 27.76758. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 26.18522, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

Week 12:

1.  Tennessee    – 27.76758
2.  NY Giants    – 26.18522
3.  Green Bay    – 24.00425
4.  Pittsburgh   – 23.66857
5.  Tampa Bay    – 22.38370
6.  Philadelphia – 22.03401
7.  Baltimore    – 21.88609
8.  Carolina     – 21.16097
9.  Arizona      – 19.67321
10. Indianapolis – 19.16029
11. Chicago      – 19.13627
12. Atlanta      – 18.83900
13. NY Jets      – 18.71930
14. San Diego    – 18.02916
15. Minnesota    – 18.01955
16. Dallas       – 17.73040
17. Jacksonville – 15.90905
18. New Orleans  – 16.60562
19. Celeveland   – 15.98245
20. Washington   – 15.78766
21. Miami        – 15.45555
22. New England  – 15.25962
23. Buffalo      – 13.62349
24. Denver       – 12.91206
25. Houston      – 12.47595
26. Seattle      – 9.45947
27. San Fran     – 9.26765
28. Cincinatti   – 9.23586
29. Kansas City  – 6.93941
30. Oakland      – 5.71706
31. Detroit      – 4.49666
32. St. Louis    – 0.00000

 

Crazy week so these are a little late. Going to start working on the new spreads.

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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on November 16, 2008

Record Year to Date: 18-16-2 (excluding Thursday night’s game)

This week’s bets:

NYJ +3 @ NE (+105)

Ind -8 vs. HOU (-110)

TB -4 vs. MIN (-110)

ARI -3 @ SEA (-105)

ATL -6 vs. DEN (-110)

PIT -4.5 vs. SD (-120)

MIA -9.5 vs. OAK (-120)

WSH PK vs. DAL (-110)

CLE +4.5 @ BUF (-110)

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Week 11 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 13, 2008

Here are this weeks picks. There’s a lot of action. A lot of confidence I games, but also two Confidence Level III games, which is pretty exciting. If you need to read up on our confidence system, check it out here.

 

Thursday Night Action!

New York Jets, +3 @ New England — Confidence Level I

Take the Jets, +3  to +7.5, also +11 and better

This is a big time AFC East matchup. The Pats are decimated by injuries and the Jets are starting to look up. They’ve got all the NFL talking heads drinking their kool-aid including Mr. Formula. We have this game at +105 odds, which is sweet.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 11 – Early Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Well, The Wizard emailed me this morning and had this to say, ” week 11 is where the results have greatly improved in past years.  In the past 7 years of data, we had a 57% winning percentage in weeks 5-10, and a 67% winning percentage in weeks 11-16, with week 11 being the clear seperating point between the two time periods.  So that could be a good sign going forward.  We were a little low in weeks 5-10 (53%), so hopefully we can be a little high going forward, or at least around what we usually do (if we go 67% the rest of the way, we’ll be looking good on the season).”

That Email got me excited for the next 6 weeks of football, and I’m already a guy who gets excited about watching, writing about, and betting on football.

So beacuse we run everything on Tuesday but it takes a while to get everything up and running, we don’t usually post this stuff until Thursday, but because we want our readers to get an early jump on action that we think needs early action jumped on, we’re posting this up today, Tuesday afternoon.

Click inside to see the bets!

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Week 11 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 26.91667. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 23.95787, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  Tennessee     – 26.91667 (+1)
2.  N.Y. Giants   – 23.95787 (+2)
3.  Pittsburgh    – 23.79026 (-2)
4.  Philadelphia  – 22.79064 (-2)
5.  Baltimore     – 22.51179 (+5)
Read the rest of this entry »

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Updates

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

We went 3-3 this week, for our second non-winning week in a row.

Power rankings might be tomorrow, it’s a holiday so I don’t know if Mr. Formula has run the statistics program yet.

Romeo Crennell is killing us. And I’m glad that Cardinals spread didn’t end up moving in our direction, that game was nuts. Anquan Boldin is definitely the best receiver in the league; it’s scary to watch him play.

 

So we’re at 18-16-2 on the year with a bunch of games still to play. Hopefully we’ll get hot and have something fun to post about.

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