Week 9 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 30, 2008

Busy week for all of us here at the Helices Posit, but we can’t go without are spread ranges. We’ve got another confidence 3 pick this week, which is pretty exciting because I’m looking for retribution after the Patriots blowout of the Broncos which came out of nowhere.

So far we’re looking at 5 games so far with another few to keep an eye on. We’ve already bet four of the games and we’re kind of waiting to see if we can get better on the fifth, but you’ll find out more of that below. So let’s get to it.


Please excuse all the dots but I’m really, really sick of spending like an hour spacing this thing out when wordpress just keeps mashing it all together again.



Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston – Confidence Level III

Model 1 – Take Minnesota from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Minnesota from from -1 to -4.5, also -6 and better

Model 1 – Take Houston from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take Houston from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5

Gotta love a confidence level 3 game. We jumped on this game since the spread was right at the edge of the model #2 output. Houston has been playing pretty well as of late so I’m a little surprised, but it’s a less than a touchdown spread with Gus & Co. rested and playing well themselves.



Cleveland, -1.5 vs. Baltimore – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Cleveland from -1.5 to +2
Model 2 – Take Cleveland from +4 to +5.5, also +9 and better

Model 1 – Take Baltimore from +12 to +15.5
Model 2 – Take Baltimore from +8.5 to +10, also +13.5 and better

Pretty surprised to see Cleveland the favorite in this game but I had a thought. Mr. Formula doesn’t know what the spreads are going to be, and he doesn’t project the spread. The fact that he likes the Browns favored here AND they’re actually favored here makes me feel pretty good about this bet.


Tennessee, -5.5 vs. Green Bay – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Tennessee from -8.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Tennessee from -3.5 to -2, also +1.5 and better

Model 1 – Take Green Bay from +19 to +22.5
Model 2 – Take Green Bay from +16 to +17.5, also +21 and better

Tennessee is going to lose at some point, though they’re passing attack running shop on the Colts last week was crazy-scary. They could win a lot of games. Still, the hardest part of their schedule is yet to come, Green Bay is rested, and they’re good. Plus, they don’t rely on a running game, which the Titans are so good at removing from a contest.

Atlanta, -3 @ Oakland – Confidence Level II

Model 1 – Take Atlanta from -8.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Atlanta from -4 to -2.5, also +1 and better

Model 1- Take Oakland from +19 to +22.5
Model 2 – Take Oakland from +16 to +18, also +21.5 and better

Really surprising to see the Falcons favored on the road but Oakland is a mess offensively and defensively. Still, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have not been the same on the road as they have been at home. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare in the black hole, especially since I’ll have money on the game.


Jacksonville, -7.5 @ Cincinnati – Confidence Level I

Model 1 – Take Jacksonville from -9 to -5.5
Model 2 – Take Jacksonville from EVEN to +1.5, also +4 and better

Model 1 – Take Cincinnati from +19.5 to +23
Model 2 – Take Cincinnati from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5

I’m cool with this bet as long as the Jags realized that they got their asses handed to them last week for not taking an opponent seriously. I don’t know how the Fitzpatrick Circus can beat the Jaguars but let’s just hope it’s a blowout. The line started at -8 so we’re gonna hold off and see if it moves to 7 which is a magic number when betting favorites.



Denver, -3 vs. Miami

Model 1 – Take Denver from +5.5 to +9
Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +5.5, also +8.5 and better

Model 1 – Take Miami from +5 to +8.5
Model 2 – Take Miami from +9 to +10.5, also +14 and better

I keep thinking this is a do or die game for Denver but they can suck as bad as they want and likely still win that division. It doesn’t make sense that San Diego is #1 in points scored yet has a losing record yet Denver can’t keep a team under 30 points and has a winning one.



Dallas, +9 @ New York Giants

Model 1 – Take Dallas from +17.5 to +21
Model 2 – Take Dallas from +13.5 to +15, also +18.5 and better

Model 1 – Take NYG from -3.5 to -7
Model 2 – Take NYG from -1 to +0.5, also +4 and better

Kind of nutty that model 1 likes the Giants a big favorite and model 2 doesn’t. It might have something to do with how good Dallas was at the beginning of the year but I really have no idea. Either way the Cowboys should get rick-rolled on Sunday.


Buffalo, -5.5 vs. New York Jets

Model 1 – Take Buffalo from -3 to +0.5
Model 2 – Take Buffalo from -1.5 to EVEN, also +3.5

Model 1 – Take NYJ from +13.5 to +17
Model 2 – Take NYJ from +14 to +15.5, also +19

Bitter division battle, a big game for Buffalo after getting blown up last week by Miami. Even has a New England fan, and a guy who has Favre as one of his fantasy quarterbacks this game couldn’t interest me any less and I’m glad I don’t have money on it. I think Mr. Formula is timid about Buffalo being for real after their hot start and recent cool off.



New England, +6 @ Indianapolis

Model 1 – Take New England from +12 to +16
Model 2 – Take New England from +16 to +17.5, also +21

Model 1 – Take Indy from -2 to +1.5
Model 2 – Take Indy from -3.5 to -2, also +1.5 and better

I’m really surprised at this spread, but Mr. Formula isn’t and I guess that’s a good thing. The Pats have been getting better every week and Indy seems to be getting worse. I like the pats in this game, but clearly if you’re betting the system, don’t take em. Office pools though, I’m all about em.



Philadelphia, -6.5 @ Seattle

Model 1 – Take Philly from -4 to -0.5
Model 2 – Take Philly from -5 to -3.5, also EVEN and better

Model 1 – Take Seattle from +14.5 to +18
Model 2 – Take Seattle from +17.5 to +19, also +22.5 and better

Philly looked okay last week I guess. Seattle looks dismal. I think Philly is overhyped right now by both Mr. Formula and the national media. I think they’ll take out the Seahawks handily though. Westbrook should soon be at full strength and then we’ll see what’s really up with that OTHER Philadelphia team.



Tampa Bay, -9 @ Kansas City

Model 1 – Take TB from NEVER (-14 to -11.5, we don’t bet more than 10 point favorites)
Model 2 – Take TB -7 and better.

Model 1 – Take KC from +25 to +28.5
Model 2 – Take KC from +24.5 to +26, also +29.5 and better

I don’t even know why we continue to post spreads on the Chiefs. They’re not ever going to be in a position where Mr. Formula thinks we should take them because we’re never gonna see spreads in the mid twenties, even if they faced Tennessee.



Arizona, -3 @ St. Louis

Model 1 – Take Arizona from -1 to +2.5
Model 2 – Take Arizona from -5 to -3.5, also EVEN and better

Model 1 – Take STL from +11.5 to +15
Model 2 – Take STL from +17.5 to +19, also +22.5 and better

This one could move into our range, but right now most of the money is coming in on St. Louis so we really don’t think that’s going to happen. Arizona is getting even money for -3 though which is pretty cool, but also another reason why we don’t think it’ll move in their favor.



Chicago, -12.5 vs. Detroit

Model 1 – Take Chicago never (-30.5 to -27)
Model 2 – Take Chicago never (-24 to -22.5, also -19 to -10.5)

Model 1 – Take Detroit +41 to +44.5
Model 2 – Take Detroit +36.5 to +38, also +41.5 and better

I am mad at myself, Mr. Formula, and the Wizard for making me waste three minutes typing this out. Obviously the formula thinks this is such a blowout that you could never have a feasible spread. But since it’s outside of our 10 point range, which you can read about here.



Washington, -2 vs. Pittsburgh

Model 1 – Take Washington from +3 to +6.5
Model 2 – Take Washington +7.5 to +9, also +12.5 and better

Model 1 – Take Pitt from +7.5 to +11
Model 2 – Take Pitt from +5 to +6.5, also +10 and better

I do not like this spread at all. Washington is okay but I have Cambpell in this week for Brees in one of my fantasy leagues along with Portis and I’m pretty certain I’m going to lose because they’re facing the Steelers D. I’m glad we’re not betting it and I’m glad Mr. Formula and I feel the same way more importantly.

So that’s it for games this week. The least amount of games since we took the two model approach. I’m excited about it. I’m also excited about finishing this post as my neck is killing me.


3 Responses to “Week 9 Point Spread Ranges”

  1. jonnychu said

    If Pittsburgh is #3 on the rankings and Washington is below Cleveland among others, how can the Redskins be the favorites? They haven’t played up to par at home all season, including a loss to St Louis, and Pittsburgh just had a terrible game but Parker is back (although limited) and Santana Moss is a game-time decision. Me no understand.

  2. mrformula said

    It basically has to do with a few things. One is that even though in the rankings washington is way down, they are only 4.5 points behind pittsburgh. Also, there are several other variables in the model which take into account more than just the team’s ratings. Home Field is an example of one of them. I don’t really want to talk too much about the model, but there are other factors that go into the spread that the formula spits out then just the teams in the game.

    The other thing is that the formula doesn’t take into account who has played and who hasn’t…..or who won’t be playing. So the Parker/Moss playing or not playing factor really doesn’t matter to the formula.

    For us it basically goes back to the fact the the formula has worked for 7 years now, so we don’t want to bet against it. There are obviously going to be some head scratchers, but we’re going to stick with it.

    Also keep in mind that Vegas thinks Washington should be favorite as well….so it’s not too far off.

  3. jonnychu said

    Yeah, I’m not questioning the formula, more like questioning Vegas. :D But these spreadmakers are professionals so I’m sure they’re more accurate than I am.

    Should the formula take into consideration who’s playing after all? For example, Dallas: Tony Romo leaves, the Dallas receivers (and offense in general) suck. With the MNF game, without Santana Moss the Redskins don’t have a legitimate deep threat. Is the reason it doesn’t factor in the same reason the spreadmakers in Vegas come out with their spreads at the beginning of the week – and if it is, should the formula also change as the week progresses as some of the spreads do?

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