TheBettorBet.com

Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

 

Pittsburgh, -3 vs. New York Giants – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take NYG from +20 to +23.5
Model 2 – Take NYG from +16 to +17.5, also +21 and better

Model 1 – Take PIT from -6 to -9.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -2 to -3.5, also +1.5 and better – BET

Weird to see the 1-loss defending champs as underdogs and Mr. Formula liking them only if they’re getting a lot of points, but Pittsburgh looks really good on defense and though I like taking the points in battles like this, I can totally see the Steelers winning by more than 3.

 

Washington, -7.5 vs. Detroit – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take DET from +20 to +23.5
Model 2 – Take DET from +17.5 to +19, also +22.5 and better

Model 1 – Take WSH from -6 to -9.5 – BET
Model 2 – Take WSH from -3.5 to -5, also EVEN and better

We’re currently waiting to bet on this game to see if it moves to 7 because 7 is a lot better than 7.5 but 8 isn’t much better than 7.5 so it won’t kill us if we lose another half point.

 

Tampa Bay, +2.5 @ Dallas – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take DAL from +10 to +13.5
Model 2 – Take DAL from +8 to +9.5, also +13 and better

Model 1 – Take TB from +0.5 to +4 – BET
Model 2 – Take TB from +4.5 to +6, also +9.5 and better

We’re currently waiting on this game too to see if we can get the spread at +3 so we get the full field goal margin of victory covered to at least a push.

 

Baltimore, -7 vs. Oakland – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take OAK from +26.5 to +30
Model 2 – Take OAK from +25 to +26.5, also +30 and better

Model 1 – Take BAL from -12.5 to -16
Model 2 – Take BAL from -11 to -12.5, also -7.5 and better

This game opened at -6.5 but we weren’t able to snag it, it’s at 7 now but word is that a lot of money is coming in on Baltimore so if you can get the game at -6.5 grab it. We’re going to jump in this one as soon as one of us gets home from work so we don’t get boned having to take it at -7.5 which is both at the edge of our parameter and also more than a touchdown.

 

Tennessee, -4 vs. Indianapolis – Watch Closely

Model 1 – Take IND from +23 to +26.5
Model 2 – Take IND from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5 and better

Model 1 – Take TEN from -9 to -12.5
Model 2 – Take TEN from -4.5 to -6, also -1.5 and better

We’re keeping an eye on this game to see if it moves to -4.5 in which case we’ll jump on it with a confidence level 2 pick. Tennessee is obviously one of the top teams in the league as they are the only still undefeated team. Should be interesting to see what the model thinks of them as their schedule gets tough in the second half.

 

Philadelphia -9 vs. Atlanta – Watch

Model 1 – Take ATL from +18 to +21.5
Model 2 – Take ATL from +21 to +22.5, also +26

Model 1 – Take PHI from -4 to -7.5
Model 2 – Take PHI from -8.5 to -7, also -3.5

Arizona, +4 @ Carolina

Model 1 – Take ARI from +10 to +13.5
Model 2 – Take ARI from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take CAR from +0.5 to 4.0
Model 2 – Take CAR from EVEN to 1.5, also +5 and better

This one would have to move a whole point in Arizona’s favor for us to take it and with Boldin definitely out again I don’t see that happening. Both teems are just too good for this to be a reliable bet at such a small spread.
Buffalo, -1.5 @ Miami

Model 1 – Take BUF from +5 to +8.5
Model 2 – Take BUF from +8 to +9.5, also +13 and better

Model 1 – Take MIA from +5.5 to +9.0
Model 2 – Take MIA from +4.5 to +6, also +9.5 and better

 

Seattle, +4.5 @ San Francisco

Model 1 – Take SEA from +11 to +15.5
Model 2 – Take SEA from +14 to +15.5, also +19 and better

Model 1 – Take SF from -1 to +2.5
Model 2 – Take SF from -1.5 to EVEN, also +3.5 and better

This is another one that just needs to move a single point to go into our range, but with the 49ers firing their coach this week I think everything will stay put. Should be an interesting game, two bottom feeders in the same division going at it mid season.

 

Cleveland, -7 @ Jacksonville

Model 1 – Take CLE from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take CLE from +16 to +17.5, also +21 and better

Model 1 – Take JAX from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take JAX from -2 to -3.5, also +1.5 and better

Funny that last week Cleveland covered against Washington, a team I consider better than Jacksonville and this week it’s the same spread and yet this game isn’t close to being bet on.

 

Kansas City, +13 @ New York Jets

Model 1 – Take KC from +24.5 to +28
Model 2 – Take KC from +24.5 to +26, also +29.5 and better

Model 1 – Take NYJ Never (-10.5 to -14)
Model 2 – Take NYJ only -7 and better

This spread is too big and the Jets are simply not good enough to take a spread this large even against Kansas City. The Jets are suspect right now and without Coles and possibly Crotchery.
So that’s it for games, still a lot of action but not an overabundance of money flying out of our pockets this week. The wizard tells me that over the last 7 years week 7 has absolutely sucked for us so last week, while no abberation, is nothing to shit bricks about.

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