TheBettorBet.com

Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.

Dallas, -7 @ St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take DAL never (only giving greater than 10 which we don’t bet)
Model 2 – Take DAL at anything better than -14.5 – BET

Model 1 – Take STL from +24.5 to +28
Model 2 – Take STL Louis from + 32 to +33.5, also +37 and better

Unfortunately, these posts take forever to construct and when I bet this game yesterday afternoon there was still a spread to bet. Since Tony Romo announced he is going to try and play Sunday the spread has been pulled down at our site. If you can find a good spread on this I’d jump on it because it might not be around for long.
New York Jets, -3 @ Oakland – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take NYJ from -10 to -9.5
Model 2 – Take NYJ from -4.5 to -3, also +0.5 and better – BET

Model 1 – Take OAK from +23 to +27
Model 2 – Take OAK from +17 to +18.5, also +22 and better

Oakland doesn’t seem to be doing very much and though the Jets had a setback last week despite winning, Thomas Jones having a breakout game makes me feel good about this bet. So far, we’re waiting because NYJ money is -125 to win 100. We’re gonna wait til last minute to see if that drops because it’s ludicrous.


Miami, -3 vs. Baltimore – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take MIA from -3 to +0.5 – BET
Model 2 – Take MIA from +2 to +3.5, also +7 and better

Model 1 – Take BAL from +13 to +17.5
Model 2 – Take BAL from +10.5 to +12, also +15.5 and better

I haven’t completely lost faith in Baltimore but apparently Mr. Formula has. Sure Miami isn’t playing like they were 1-16 last year but they were, after all, just 1-16 last year. We also got this game at even money which is pretty sweet.
Cleveland, +7 @ Washington – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CLE from +4 to +7.5 – BET
Model 2 – Take CLE from +12 to +13.5, also +17 and better

Model 1 – Take WSH from +6.5 to +10
Model 2 – Take WSH from +0.5 to +2, also +5.5 and better

Washington just lost a home game to the worst team in the league. Washington could be one of those teams that just gets complacent at home and loses dumb games or the Browns could be trying to live up to the preseason hype.
New York Giants, -10 vs. San Francisco – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take NYG at -10 only – BET
Model 2 – Take NYG -8.5 to -7, also -3.5 and better

Model 1 – Take SF from +24 to +27.5
Model 2 – Take SF from +21 to +22.5, also, +26

This game just moved into our range yesterday so we grabbed it while we could. Sure the giants are coming off losing a huge upset but the 49ers are not the Browns when it comes to potential, even if Mike Nolan looks spiffy on the sidelines in his suits.
Tennessee, -9 @ Kansas City – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take TEN from -17 to -13.5
Model 2 – Take TEN from -10 to -8.5, also -5.0 and better

Model 1 – Take KC from +27.5 to +31
Model 2 – Take KC from +22.5 to +24, also +27.5 and better

This game will be a Confidence Level 2 game if it moves a simple half point to -8.5 for the Titans, so we’ll be keeping an eye on it and giving updates as we get them. Brodie Croyle is supposedly back this week so it’s possible this line gets more lopsided by Sunday at gametime.

Tampa Bay, -10 vs. Seattle – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take TB Never (-21 to -27.5)
Model 2 – Take TB from -25 to -23.5, also -20 and better

Model 1 – Take SEA from +41 to +45
Model 2 – Take SEA from +37.5 to +39, also +42.5 and better

This is another potential Confidence Level 2 game where the “worst possible bet” setting will come in handy. These are the games we’ve been talking about not betting when the line is much better than model #1 projects so we’ll get to see hands on how Mr. Formula’s #2 ranked team fares against the worst team in his rankings.

Chicago, -3 vs. Minnesota – Watch Closely

Model 1 – Take CHI from -7 to -3.5
Model 2 – Take CHI from -6.5 to -5, also -1.5 and better

Model 1 – Take MIN from +17.5 to +21
Model 2 – Take MIN from +19 to +20.5, also +24 and better

This one is weird because if it moves to -3.5 for Chicago we’ll bet it as a confidence level 1 game. However, this would put the spread in the exact range the second model skils over (between -5 and -1.5). Plus Minnesota is coming off a game where they could’ve had a big offensive game if not for two huge AP fumbles, but still looked better as an offense, even if it was against the league’s worst D.

Pittsburgh, -9.5 @ Cincinatti – Watch Closely

Model 1 – Take PIT from -9 to -5.5
Model 2 – Take PIT from -1 to +0.5, also +4 and better

Model 2 – Take CIN from +19.5 to +23
Model 2 – Take CIN from +13.5 to +15, also +18.5

This is another game that needs to move just a half point to get within our range. This would be a confidence 1 game. With Willy Parker in and Carson Palmer out I’m surprised that it’s only a 9.5 point spread but if it moves into our range I’ll gladly take the Steelers.

Houston, -9.5 vs. Detroit

Model 1 – Take HOU from -15.5 to -12
Model 2 – Take HOU from -8.5 to -7, also -3.5 and better

Model 1 – Take DET from +26 to +29.5
Model 2 – Take DET from +21 to +22.5, also +26 and better

This game started out at -9 and moved to -9.5 when Kitna went on the IR. I don’t see this game moving a full point in Detroit’s favor so I’m sure it’ll be one of the few games we leave alone this week.

New Orleans, +3 @ Carolina

Model 1 – Take NO from +9 to +12.5
Model 2 – Take NO from +11 to +12.5, also +16 and better

Model 1 – Take CAR from +1.5 to +5
Model 2 – Take CAR from +11 to +12.5, also +6.5 and better

This spread isn’t going to move into either of those ranges either. I’m a little surprised Carolina is favored by 3 with the Saints playing really well the last few weeks but I know everyone loves the Panthers. I think it comes down to New Orleans and their injuries.

San Deigo, EVEN @ Buffalo

Model 1 – Take SD from +3 to +6.5
Model 2 – Take SD from +5.5 to +7, also +10.5 and better

Model 1 – Take BUF from +7.5 to +11
Model 2 – Take BUF from +7 to +8.5, also +12 and better

Even games are kind of crazy and tempting but in the last three weeks it’s been rare for an even spread to fall within the betting range. This game pits a couple of volitaile teams in San Diego (playing worse than they supposedly are) and Buffalo (are they really this good?), so I think the oddsmakers just gave up after a few hours deliberation.

Indianapolis, -2 @ Green Bay

Model 1 – Take IND from -0.5 to +3
Model 2 – Take IND from +5.5 to +7, also +10.5 and better

Model 1 – Take GB from +11 to +14.5
Model 2 – Take GB from +7 to +8.5, also +12 and better

With Indy on the Rise this game should be a shootout, one of the games I’m totally looking forward to this week. This is one of those games where it seems like Mr. Formula doesn’t like either team, beacuse he really only wants us in on this action if we’re getting points.

So that’s the scoop for week 7. Should be pretty exciting with the new format, there’s a LOT of action and I’m stoked to see how are Lock of the week Confidence 3 pick does.

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