Week 6 Spread-Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 9, 2008

My partner is filling in this week because I have a flight to catch, he’s new at this so be easy on him!

Cincinati at N.Y. Jets (Jets – 6)

Take Cincinati at +23.0 to +26.5

Take N.Y. Jets at -9.0 to -10

Stay away from this game. Cincinati is deperate and who knows if Brett Favre will throw 6 TDs or 6 Ints. If there was ever a game that we were unsure about, this would be it. This is one of those games that seems weird that we would recommend taking the Jets at -9 or -10, but not at -6. We know it is weird. The reason is that when the spread differs too much from what the model thinks it should be, then there is too much variability between the teams and there is some non-data factor that Mr Formula can not account for. Thus we produce a range to bet. If the game falls within that range, there is enough of a difference between the actual spread and what the model predicts, but not so much of a difference that there is too much variability to come to a reasonable conclusion.

We have backed this up by looking at the data. Mr Formula does not do as well when it predicts a very large difference between the 2 teams. It does much better when the difference is reasonable. Hence we only bet games within our range, where we ‘know’ we will hit 60% or more over the long run.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (Tampa – 1.5)

Take Carolina at +1.0 to +4.5

Take Tampa Bay at +9.5 to +13.0

Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks, and Tampa has looked pretty good at home this year. To us, we have no idea who to pick in this game and might lean toward Tampa in this one. But who are we to argue with Mr Formula. Bet Carolina!

We should note that we have already bet this game because the line had moved to TB -1, and when we saw it move back to 1.5 we bet it before it moved back down. So we would recommend getting this line at +1.5 while you can.

Chicago at Atlanta (Chicago – 3)

Take Chicago at -1.5 to +2.0

Take Atlanta at +12 to +15.5

Chicago has played very well the last two weeks beating the Eagles and humiliating the Lions. Mr Formula is close to picking them in this game. If the spread moves to 1.5, we will be jumping on this one. And you should too

Dallas at Arizona (Dallas – 4.5)

Take Dallas at +7.0 to +10.5

Take Arizona at +3.5 to +7.0

Arizona has been tough at home this year, and Dallas hasn’t played too great recently, losing to Washington and almost to Cincinati, both at home. Mr Formula like the home dog here, so bet Arizona. We are going to wait this one out since it is in the middle of our range and it started at Dallas -5. We are hoping by Sunday it will be back to Dallas – 5 since most late week bettors tend to pick favorites, which we hope will be the case here and bump the line back up.

Jacksonville at Denver (Denver – 3)

Take Jacksonville at +15.0 to +18.5

Take Denver at -4.5 to -1.0

Another game that we are going to wait to bet. The current line is Denver -3 at -125. That’s a big time vig and one we hope will decrease as the week goes on. If it doesn’t we will still bet it, as a 60% success rate is profitable with a -125 line (anything about a 56% success rate would be). However we would love it if the vig came down some.

Oakland at New Orleans (NO – 7.5)

Take Oakland at +20.0 to +23.5

Take New Orleans at -6.0 to -9.5

Yet another game that we are going to wait to bet. Although we do not think it will happen, we are willing to wait on this line with the slim chance that it turns into NO – 7. We feel that we’d be gaining a lot if that happened which outweighs what we’ll lose if the line jumps to NO -8 (which is much more likely). So we will wait this one out, but we wouldn’t blame you for grabbing NO at -7.5 while you can.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (Indy – 4.5)

Take Baltimore at +1.5 to +5.0

Take Indianapolis at +9.0 to +12.5

This game actually has already moved to Indy – 4. We got it at Indy -4.5 early because we were afraid of it going down, as it looked like the early money was coming in on Baltimore. You could either wait to see if it goes up a half point or take the game now and we wouldn’t argue with you. We have no idea which way this line will move, or if it will even move at all.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (Phily – 5)

Take Philadelphia at -8.5 to -5.0

Take San Francisco at +19.0 to +22.5

Bet this game as soon as you can. This game started at Philly – 4.5 and our of our range. It quickly moved to Philly -5, which is the best line you can get it at and still be within the range. Philly is coming off of a couple of tough losses and really needs this one. While San Fran needs it pretty badly too, the better team will prevail in this one.

Detroit at Minnesota (Minnesota – 13.5)

Take Detroit at +36.5 to +40.0

Do not bet Minnesota at any line

This is one of those games that Mr Formula will never bet. A clearly inferior team against a heavy favorite. Mr Formula requires way too many points for Detroit to ever actually be getting and the range for Minnesota falls fully above -10 (-22.5 to -26.0) and Mr Formula never bets favorites giving more than 10 points. So these are the types of games that Mr Formula stays away from, and the recommendation is that you should as well.

Green Bay at Seattle (Seattle – 2.0)

Take Green Bay at -10.0 to -7.5

Take Seattle at +21.5 to +25.0

This is another game similar to the Jets/Bengals game. You look and say ‘Take Green Bay at -10 to -7.5, but they are GETTING 2 points, of course I should take them!’. But as we explained in the Jets/Bengals summary, when there is this much of a difference between Mr Formula and the actual spread, STAY AWAY!

Miami at Houston (Houston – 3.0)

Take Miami at -10.0 to -8.5

Take Houston at +22.5 to +26.0

Same explanation as the previous game. Too much variability between the Mr Formula and the real spread, so avoid this game.

St. Louis at Washington (Washington – 13.5)

Take St. Louis at +54.0 to +57.5

Do not bet Washington at any line

Again, this one is just like the Minnesota-Detroit game. There is no line at which St. Louis would be a realistic bet and Mr Formula doesn’t bet favorites of more than 10.

New England at San Diego (San Diego – 6.0)

Take New England at +15.0 to +18.5

Take San Diego at -4.5 to -1.0

Another game to keep an eye on. This one has already moved to San Diego -5.5. If it moves any further we will really keep an eye on it. If you see this line at -4.5 then take it immediately. This is a must win for San Diego, where as New England can afford to lose this game and still be 3-2. You saw what the Chargers did to the Jets the last time they faced a must win game.

N.Y. Giants at Cleveland (Giants – 7.5)

Take Cleveland at +12.5 to +16.0

Take N.Y. Giants giving -2.0 to +1.5

Another game to stay away from. There is no way to know which Cleveland team will show up, and the Giants haven’t really been tested on the road yet (St. Louis is their only road game so far)

So there you have it. Mr Formula likes a lot of action this week. 6 games with an outside potential to reach 8. No trends this week as Mr Formula like 3 home teams, 3 road teams, 3 favorites, and 3 underdogs. So there you go, bet well!


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