Week 5 NFL Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 2, 2008

Below are the spreads you want to find for week five. One thing you have to remember is that it’s not a good thing to be betting on every game. I have plenty of friends who want to take the action on every game, make parlays, take overs and unders, bet every single night game or game they have on TV. That’s not the way to make money. Luckily for us, this system is the way to make money.

One thing to remember regarding this is that a lot of the spreads you’ll find below say to only bet on a game when you are getting points, regardless of what team you take. If the spread-range seems astronomical it’s because Mr. Formula wants you to stay away from that game. Remember this isn’t a tool to use to bet on every game, just the ones it wants us to. Normally week 5 presents us with very few games to bet on, and that’s nothing different in 2008.

Mr. Formula presented us with two spreads he thinks are “winners” in week 5, and  I’ll start with those because those are the ones you want to know about. If you can find action with spreads falling into our ranges for the other games, Mr.F recommends you bet them.


Take New England at +9 to +12

Take San Francisco at +1.5 to +5

San Francisco is the first game of the week to take. Right now it’s sitting at +3 so we’re waiting on it to move closer to five if we can. We’re getting better than even money on the niners meaning you risk 100 to give up 105 which is awesome. That makes it seem like a lot of people are taking the Pats which is why we’re going to hold off until at least Saturday or the line starts to move closer to even.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

Take Pittsburgh at +0.5 to +4

Take Jacksonville at +10 to +13.5

It seems Mr. Formula really likes the Steelers. Sure they have their two best running backs out, but they did last week as well and faced a much tougher defense. Mr.F doesn’t like the Jags at all. We grabbed the Steelers at +4 and are pretty happy we got the most points that our spread-range affords us. It’ll be a fun Sunday night game to watch.

Cincinnati @ Dallas

Take Cincinnati at +25 to +28.5

Take Dallas at -14.5 to -11

The Spread for this game is Dallas giving up 17 so we’re not going to go with it.

Indianapolis @ Houston

Take Houston at +10 to +13.5

Take Indy at +0.5 to +4

The spread we have is Indy giving 3, no thanks.

San Diego @ Miami

Take San Deigo at +1.5 to +5

Take Miami at +9 to +12.5

Our site has it Miami +6 so no bet.

Buffalo @ Arizona

Take Buffalo at +2.5 to +6

Take Arizona at +8 to +11

This one is weird, Arizona is favored by 1.5 on our site, but it says to only take them if getting more than a touchdown. We’re keeping an eye on this and if it moves into our range, even at the least amount of points (2.5), we’ll take it.

Tennessee @ Baltimore

Take Tennessee at -0.5 to +3.0

Take Baltimore at +11 to +14.5

The Titans are favored by 3, which is too close to call in this battle of defenses.

Washington @ Philadelphia

Take Washington at +6.5 to +10

Take Philly at +4 to +7.5

This one is close, Washington is getting 5.5 right now but the line hasn’t moved at all. It’s possible that it will but these NFC East contests are usually close, so anything more than two field goals we’re jumping on it.

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Take Green bay at -0.5 to +3

Take Atlanta at +11 to +14.5

This game actually doesn’t have a spread yet. I’d imagine it will have one later in the week but I guess it’s dependent on an Aaron Rogers announcement.

New Orleans @ Minnesota

Take New Orleans at -2.5 to +1

Take Minnesota at +13 to +16.5

New Orleans is giving up 3, so this is really close to being within our range but for the spread to move a lot of people are going to have to start betting Vikings but I don’t see that happening at all.

Kansas City @ Carolina

Take Kansas City at +25.5 to +29

Take Carolina at -15 to -11.5

You’re not going to find a spread big enough to take KC and we don’t recommend taking Carolina no matter what. NEXT.

Tampa Bay @ Denver

Take Tampa Bay at -3 to +0.5

Take Denver at +13.5 to +17

This is the first really interesting one. Tampa Bay has little offense and Denver has no defense but is an Offensive powerhouse. Yet Mr. Formula hates Denver. The spread is Denver giving 3, yet we’re only supposed to take Tampa Bay GIVING points. This is surely an interesting call, and one that I brought up to the Wizard in an email last night. All we can really say about it is that when we bet games outside the formula the success rate drops. We’re staying away beause we’re doing this to test the formula model, but we’re going to keep a close eye on instances like this.

Seattle @ New York Giants

Take Seattle at +32 to +35.5

Take NYG at -12.5 to -18

This is another weird one with the Giants giving up 6.5. Youd think that if the formula is willing to take them at -12.5 to -18 then we should jump on them at -6.5. Again we’re going to keep an eye on this but the plan is to test the formula model above all else.

Detroit @ Chicago

Take Detroit at +30.5 to +34

Take Chicago at -20 to -16.5

Same as the last two, seems crazy not to take Chicago giving up 3.5 to the Lowly Lions but Mr. Formula has to have a reason for it so we’re staying away. Really the reason why this formula model is so unique is because it gives us a range. If we just took the low point and bet everything over it, then the success rate drops severely, sometimes as bad as only 40%. The Wizard thinks that the whole reason the formula model works is beacuse there’s a range, and that possibly the larger the spreads get, the more volitaile they are.


One Response to “Week 5 NFL Spread Ranges”

  1. jrwojdylo said

    betting against the spread is so very difficult in the NFL, I am much better at college games….29-19 so far this year.

    The Church of Cowherd
    Join the Church of Cowherd!

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