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Archive for October, 2008

Week 9 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 30, 2008

Busy week for all of us here at the Helices Posit, but we can’t go without are spread ranges. We’ve got another confidence 3 pick this week, which is pretty exciting because I’m looking for retribution after the Patriots blowout of the Broncos which came out of nowhere.

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So far we’re looking at 5 games so far with another few to keep an eye on. We’ve already bet four of the games and we’re kind of waiting to see if we can get better on the fifth, but you’ll find out more of that below. So let’s get to it.

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Please excuse all the dots but I’m really, really sick of spending like an hour spacing this thing out when wordpress just keeps mashing it all together again.

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Minnesota, -4.5 vs Houston – Confidence Level III

Model 1 – Take Minnesota from -1.5 to -5
Model 2 – Take Minnesota from from -1 to -4.5, also -6 and better

Model 1 – Take Houston from +15.5 to +19
Model 2 – Take Houston from +18.5 to +20, also +23.5


Gotta love a confidence level 3 game. We jumped on this game since the spread was right at the edge of the model #2 output. Houston has been playing pretty well as of late so I’m a little surprised, but it’s a less than a touchdown spread with Gus & Co. rested and playing well themselves.

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Week 9 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 28, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Chicago, has a value of 25.19971. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Chicago should conceivably beat Kansas City by 25 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 24.85490, meaning the Bears “would” beat the Titans by approximately 0.35 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1. Chicago                   25.19971
2.  Tennessee               24.85490
3.  Pittsburgh               23.21320
4.  NY Giants                22.91384
5.  Philadelphia            22.68059
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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on October 26, 2008

Record, year to date: 10-8-1

Houston -9.5

NE -7

Pitt -3

Bal -7

TB +1.5

Was -7.5

Also, Tenn is -4 right now, if it moves to -4.5 by tomorrow night, we will bet that too.

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Why 10+ Point Favorites are a Crapshoot

Posted by mrformula on October 25, 2008

Ok, so this is our theory as to why we don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Well first off, the data shows that it is not a good idea. But we think there is a good (ok, reasonable) explanation for this:

In thinking about the TB push and the Giants near push last week, it gives me a theory as to why you don’t bet favorites of more then 10. Basically, if you think of this from the underdog or favorites point of view, it should still make sense. If the underdog has the ball late, going for a score, the only way the defense is going to relax and not worry as much about a garbage TD is if it’s a 3 score game. In a 2 score game, I don’t think defenses would be lettting up at the end of games with the obvious implication that they are just one lucky bounce on an onside kick away from having a chance to tie the game. Hence, the lead would have to be 17 or more (16 would still be 2 scores), so if they do give up a garbage time score they’d still be winning by at least 10. This is exactly what happened in the TB game last week. If that lead had been 16 instead of 17, I don’t think you would have seen the same relaxed approach on defense that TB took.

If the favorite has the ball late, they will be pushing to make it a 2 score game. This was evident in the Giants game, where they played conservatively for the FG knowing it would put them up 2 scores and basically seal the game, with a 10 point lead. While we got lucky that JT O’Sullivan kicked the ball out of his own end zone for the cover, the idea still holds. So basically, we think that the winning team plays late in the 4th quarter to maintain at least a 2 score lead, which more often then not translates to a 10 point lead. This is why it’s risky and can’t really be predicted when the line is more then 10. Because often times the team that has more then a 10 point spread might play ‘more then 10 points better then the other team’, but their strategy late in games is to maintain at least a two-score lead. Thus betting on these games is a crapshoot because it often comes down to who scores in garbage time.

On another note, we are going to start posting every bet we make before the games on Sundays, so that people can see what lines we were able to get games. Last week alone, two lines moved into our range on late Saturday night-Early Sunday morning, that we grabbed and I’m not sure if we had time to post. But from now on we will make this post every Sunday, with our record to date included. If a Monday night game could possibly move into our range but hasn’t yet as of Sunday, we will update that post if it does and we bet it.

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Week 8 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 23, 2008

Last week was a weird one. We started using a new model that went 4-0 in week 6 and it went 0-3-1 in week 7. Sometimes those are the breaks you catch, but it really took the wind out of our sails, especially the Denver game we lost monday night, but they’re all each one game and we’re up on the year and that’s the most important thing. In contrast, the original model had a great week going 4-1 so that’s something to be excited about. We just wish we got our money into model 2 on week 6 when it kicked ass.

We’re looking at 6 games right now, we would have a seventh game but we’re not going to bet on the San Diego / New Orleans game in London because though the Saints are listed as “Home” they’re not really home and that affects both models, the spread itself; everything, so we’re just not betting it.


Houston, -9.5 vs. Cincinatti – Confidence Level 1

Model 1 – Take CIN from +20.5 to +24
Model 2 – Take CIN from +12.5 to +14, also +17.5 and better

Model 1 – Take HOU from -6.5 to -10 – BET
Model 2 – Take HOU from EVEN to +1.5, also +5 and better
We jumped on this game already, taking it before it went to the full ten points. There are a number of reasons why a half point is better than an even point but staying below two scores is pretty important, especially after pushing on a ten point game last week.

 

New England, -7 vs. St. Louis – Confidence Level 2

Model 1 – Take STL from +15 to +18.5
Model 2 – Take STL from +20.5 to +22, also +25 and better

Model 1 – Take NE from -1 to -4.5
Model 2 – Take NE from -6.5 to -8, also -3 and better – BET

After the model picking against the Pats last week and generally hating on them for 7 weeks in the power rankings it’s a little nerve-wracking to see Mr. Formula pick them against the team that just upset two NFL powerhouses (even if Dallas is obliterated by injuries).

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Week 8 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on October 21, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Pittsburgh, has a value of 29.27980. Kansas City, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Pittsburgh should conceivably beat Kansas City by 29 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.97769, meaning the Bucs “would” beat the Bears by approximately 2.3 points.

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

1.  Pittsburgh    – 29.27980 – (+3)
2.  Tennessee     – 26.97769 – (+1)
3.  Chicago       – 26.86526 – (-1)
4.  Philadelpiha  – 24.11808 – (+5)
5.  Tampa Bay     – 23.48914 – (-4)

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Monday Morning – Week 7 Recap

Posted by deck104 on October 20, 2008

We didnt get a chance to post this up yesterday but on Sunday morning the Tampa Bay spread moved into our range and we took it. We also got the Steelers spread on Saturday night really late but I don’t remember if I posted that up yet or not, but there ya go.

The Wizard was a little worried about having 9 bets on the table this week, clearly more than we were expecting for any given week of the NFL season but with the new model comes about 3 more bets per week and I had faith that we wouldn’t completely bottom out and we didnt.

We’re 4-3-1 so far with the push coming late, late last night to the point I’m kind of pissed off about it. So far we haven’t been burned by junktime scoring and we weren’t exactly burned by it last night either, but Obviously I’d rather be 5-3 than 4-3-1. I’ll go backwards and cover the games

Tampa Bay -10 vs. Seattle – Push

The Bucs were off and running early when I was flipping between the two Tampa Bay games of the night (the other being the Sox game). 17-3 late in the game and I was really confident that we finally had a game we weren’t going to sweat out (it seems that either we know we’ve lost early, or we’re sweating it out til the end). Of course, Julius Jones hadn’t done shit all day and then all of a sudden in the final drive with less than five minutes late he looks like he hadn’t taken a handoff all night. He had about 50 yards on two runs and set the Seahawks up for an easy rollout touchdown pass and the Push was on.

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Sunday Morning Action

Posted by deck104 on October 19, 2008

Well I woke up a little early and the Bucs spread has moved to -10 and thus in our range. It was mired at 10.5 all week and if you don’t already know we never take a favorite giving more than 10 points. Since we’ve already bet the Tennessee game, we’re at 8 total games for today and tomorrow.

The Houston spread actually moved the other way so count that one out for this weekend and while the Pittsburgh spread is still within a half point of our range it hasn’t moved all week and we’re not expecting to get to nine games for week 7. Bet well.

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Friday Afternoon Update

Posted by deck104 on October 17, 2008

 

Not much to say but the Titans spread moved to -9 so we jumped on it and bet it last night. We could be looking at 7-9 games this weekend which is a little nuts. We didn’t go into this thinking that we’d be adding another model and thus another model’s worth of games. Gonna be a fun weekend though.

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Week 7 Point Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on October 16, 2008

If you haven’t already checked our last post (https://helices.wordpress.com/2008/10/16/an-update-to-the-formula/), you should. I know it’s only been two weeks around here but when you find away to make yourself and others more money, you don’t sit on it. We’ve made some great improvements to the betting model and Mr. Formula is feeling footloose and fancy-free about week 7.

In a nutshell, we’re giving each game we pick a confidence level of either 1, 2 or 3. Levels 1 and 2 indicate two different models. 1 being the model we’ve been outputting for the past two weeks. #2 is the new model, and when both of the models pick the same game we give it a 3. Level 3 has been 24-6 over the last 5 seasons including last weeks New Orleans/Oakland game, which was a winner. We still recommend betting every game if you want to win money over the long run (that’s our goal), but if you’re looking for a one game sort of thing, level 3 is what you want. And while there are usually only 6 per year, we’ve got one for you this week, and I’ll start with that.

Denver, +3 @ New England – Confidence Level 3 – BET

Model 1 – Take Denver from +3 to +6.5 / Take NE from +7.5 to +11

Model 2 – Take Denver from +3 to +4.5 and +8 to +10
Model 2 – Take NE from +9.5 to + 11 and +14.5 and up

Both models seem to not like the Patriots and being a New Englander I can’t disagree with them this season. The Pats have looked really bad and all signs are pointing to Jay Cutler dicing up the Pats secondary this week. I’m guessing Denver being on the road is what’s keeping the spread close but Mr. Formula doesn’t care where this game is held, he thinks the Patsies are going down.
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