TheBettorBet.com

Week 14 Bets

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

In case you haven’t checked in over here in a couple weeks, we’ve changed up what we’re doing here in an effort to improve our system, make it simple, less nonsensical, and more profitable.

Now instead of a bunch of spread-ranges and model outputs, we’re just giving you our bets, the worst-possible line at which you should take the team we’re betting, and how confident we are in it, I, II, and III. The way our confidence levels are explained are the same: we still use the same two models, and when both models like the game it’s a confidence level III bet. We’ve got one of those this week and so far this year we’ve only missed on two of these (I think we’re 6-2 but The Wizard keeps all that statistical information, I’m not sure where that stuff is).

Anyway, five bets this week, up from two last wek – and here’s what we’re taking:

Confidence Level I:

New York Giants, -8 or better vs. Philadelphia

We were actually able to nab this game at -6.5 which is huge for us. Anytime you can get this at less than a touchdown you can nab it. Philly is a hot pick after going off last week so the spread should stay closer than 8 in most places.

 

New England, -5 or better @ Seattle 

The Pats are coming off a pretty sour loss but are playing a great team to recover from. Even with Hasselbeck back (5 times fast?) the Seahawks are not looking good. Their 12th man could pose a problem for an offensive line that is not playing very well and a “rookie” quarterback. Either way this is a kitchen sink situation for the Patriots, they can’t lose anymore.

 

Confidence Level II:

Minnesota, -10 or better @ Detroit

Not only are the Lions hapless, they play in the ugliest, least inspiring uniforms in the league. They are seriously just plain blue with white letters, no colored borders or a hint of black on any of them. It’s annoying. Also annoying: Daunte Culpepper. I don’t know why, he just is.

 

Baltimore, -6 or better vs. Washington

The Ravens are looking good and it seems like spreadmakers think it’s all over for the Skins who are already eliminated from winning their division. Portis is cold. Santana Moss has been non-existant, and Campbell is auditioning to be Matt Cassel’s backup next year in the nation’s capital.

 

Confidence Level III

Pittsburgh, -3 or better vs. Dallas

I was surprised that this was a confidence level III game since I hate Pittsburgh and think they suck no matter what. I also think Dallas is pretty good but there’s a reason why I write the blog posts and not the formulas.

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Week 14 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on December 4, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 27.52162. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning The Giants should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 26.61108, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1 point at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  NY Giants     – 27.56162
2.  Tennessee   – 26.61108
3.  Baltimore     – 26.19647
4.  Pittsburgh   – 25.66657
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.74425
6.  Philadelphia  – 23.30936
7.  Green Bay     – 21.76834
8.  Carolina      – 21.14588
9.  Atlanta       – 21.07997
10. Minnesota     – 20.93014
11. Indianapolis  – 20.42818
12. New Orleans   – 19.88712
13. NY Jets       – 19.22131
14. Dallas        – 18.72774
15. Chicago       – 18.40959
16. San Diego     – 17.94695
17. Arizona       – 17.43722
18. New England   – 16.00247
19. Cleveland     – 15.66974
20. Washington    – 15.57922
21. Houston   – 15.22528
22. Jacksonville  – 14.67220
23. Buffalo       – 13.77820
24. Miami         – 13.64310
25. Denver        – 13.13531
26. San Francisco – 10.13593
27. Cincinatti    -  8.72370
28. Oakland       -  8.35143
29. Seattle       -  8.23424
30. Kansas City   -  7.02378
31. Detroit       -  3.06179
32. St. Louis     -  0.00000
     

Not a lot of movement in the top five of the power rankings.  Pretty surprised to see New Orleans as high as they were and Carolina lower than Tampa, but I’m sure those will shake themselves out this weekend as the NFC South all play each other on Sunday.  I was also surprised to see Arizona below a bunch of NFC teams that I don’t think they should be below (NO, Chi; but also SD).

 

Our bets for the week will be posted concurrently. Been swamped at work today. Actually thought I had an easy day today; I don’t, but screw it.

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Week 13 Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Really quick because I’m only home for a second before All Turkey’s Eve festivities.

Only two bets this week. Which is a nice change of pace. And I can ignore the browns for an entire weekend as I’m benching Jamal Lewis in fantasy sports in addition to not betting them.

So take Miami, -8 or better vs. St. Louis

or

Baltimore, -7 and better vs. Cincinatti

Happy Turkey

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Week 13 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 26, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, The Giants, has a value of 26.55056. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 26.5 points at a neutral site. Tennessee, the second ranked team has a value of 25.17013, meaning the Giants “would” beat the Titans by approximately 1.4 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

 

1.  N.Y. Giants   – 26.55056
2.  Tennessee     – 25.17013
3.  Baltimore     – 24.19397
4.  Pittsburgh    – 23.75267
5.  Tampa Bay     – 22.70213
6.  N.Y. Jets     – 22.50439
7.  Green Bay     – 22.04002
8.  Carolina      – 20.75316
9.  Atlanta       – 20.38514
10. PHiladelphia  – 20.00413
11. Indianapolis  – 19.90332
12. Arizona       – 19.81332
13. Chicago       – 19.47601
14. Minnesota     – 19.43752
15. New Olreans   – 19.37883
16. San Diego     – 18.80609
17. New England   – 18.18911
18. Dallas        – 17.50090
19. Buffalo       – 15.99893
20. Washington    – 15.74136
21. Miami         – 15.18219
22. Cleveland     – 15.00144
23. Jacksonville  – 14.98657
24. Houston       – 13.84310
25. Denver        – 11.22853
26. Seattle       -  9.52927
27. San Francisco -  9.49379
28. Oakland       -  9.30297
29. Cincinnati    -  9.22352
30. Kansas City   -  6.47465
31. Detroit       -  4.32118
32. St. Louis    – 0.0000

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This week’s games

Posted by mrformula on November 22, 2008

Since we arleady placed our bets for the week, here they are:

Record Year to Date: 22-21-2

This weeks picks:

Cleveland -3 vs. Houston (-110)

Tennessee -5 vs. New York Jets (-110)

Tampa Bay – 8.5 @ Detroit (-110)

Chicago – 7.5 @ St. Louis (-110)

Denver -9.5 vs. Oakland (-110)

Indianapolis +2.5 @ San Diego (-110)

Green Bay +2.5 @ New Orleans (-110)

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Week 12 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

After another frustrating week we’ve decided to mix things up a bit seeing how this is our ‘test’ season and we’re still working out kinks.

Now instead of giving you what each model outputs and messing around with ranges that don’t make a whole lot of sense (“why would I take Denver at +3 but not +6??”), we’re just going to give you the worst possible spread for the games that qualify, the confidence level, and any other pertinent information that you might need to bet.

As always post any questions or email us.

 

Chicago, -8 and better @ St. Louis – Confidence Level I

 

Cleveland, -4 and better vs. Houston – Confidence Level I

 

Denver, -10 and better vs. Oakland – Confidence Level I

 

Indianapolis, +2 and better @ San Diego – Confidence Level I

 

Tampa Bay, -9 and better @ Detroit – Confidence Level II

 

Tennessee, -6 and better vs. New York Jets – Confidence Level II

 

Green Bay, +2 and better @ New Orleans – Confidence Level II

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Week 12 Power Rankings

Posted by deck104 on November 20, 2008

Mr. Formula outputs a power ranking every week, it’s how he ranks the teams and pits them against each other inside his mindgrapes. Below is the fruit of his labor after taking into account a bunch of variables and cross referencing them against each other.

The Number to the right of each team is their “value” at a neutral field. For Example, the number one ranked team, Tennessee, has a value of 27.76758. St. Louis, the worst team, has a value of 0.00000 (beacuse every other team is assumed to beat them). Meaning Tennessee should conceivably beat St. Louis by 27 points at a neutral site. The Giants, the second ranked team has a value of 26.18522, meaning the Titans “would” beat the Giants by approximately 3.05 points at a neutral site (like London).

This in no way is supposed to predict how many points a team will score in a game, simply their superiority over the clubs below them.

Week 12:

1.  Tennessee    – 27.76758
2.  NY Giants    – 26.18522
3.  Green Bay    – 24.00425
4.  Pittsburgh   – 23.66857
5.  Tampa Bay    – 22.38370
6.  Philadelphia – 22.03401
7.  Baltimore    – 21.88609
8.  Carolina     – 21.16097
9.  Arizona      – 19.67321
10. Indianapolis – 19.16029
11. Chicago      – 19.13627
12. Atlanta      – 18.83900
13. NY Jets      – 18.71930
14. San Diego    – 18.02916
15. Minnesota    – 18.01955
16. Dallas       – 17.73040
17. Jacksonville – 15.90905
18. New Orleans  – 16.60562
19. Celeveland   – 15.98245
20. Washington   – 15.78766
21. Miami        – 15.45555
22. New England  – 15.25962
23. Buffalo      – 13.62349
24. Denver       – 12.91206
25. Houston      – 12.47595
26. Seattle      – 9.45947
27. San Fran     – 9.26765
28. Cincinatti   – 9.23586
29. Kansas City  – 6.93941
30. Oakland      – 5.71706
31. Detroit      – 4.49666
32. St. Louis    – 0.00000

 

Crazy week so these are a little late. Going to start working on the new spreads.

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This Week’s Bets

Posted by mrformula on November 16, 2008

Record Year to Date: 18-16-2 (excluding Thursday night’s game)

This week’s bets:

NYJ +3 @ NE (+105)

Ind -8 vs. HOU (-110)

TB -4 vs. MIN (-110)

ARI -3 @ SEA (-105)

ATL -6 vs. DEN (-110)

PIT -4.5 vs. SD (-120)

MIA -9.5 vs. OAK (-120)

WSH PK vs. DAL (-110)

CLE +4.5 @ BUF (-110)

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Week 11 Spread Ranges

Posted by deck104 on November 13, 2008

Here are this weeks picks. There’s a lot of action. A lot of confidence I games, but also two Confidence Level III games, which is pretty exciting. If you need to read up on our confidence system, check it out here.

 

Thursday Night Action!

New York Jets, +3 @ New England — Confidence Level I

Take the Jets, +3  to +7.5, also +11 and better

This is a big time AFC East matchup. The Pats are decimated by injuries and the Jets are starting to look up. They’ve got all the NFL talking heads drinking their kool-aid including Mr. Formula. We have this game at +105 odds, which is sweet.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

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Week 11 – Early Bets

Posted by deck104 on November 11, 2008

Well, The Wizard emailed me this morning and had this to say, ” week 11 is where the results have greatly improved in past years.  In the past 7 years of data, we had a 57% winning percentage in weeks 5-10, and a 67% winning percentage in weeks 11-16, with week 11 being the clear seperating point between the two time periods.  So that could be a good sign going forward.  We were a little low in weeks 5-10 (53%), so hopefully we can be a little high going forward, or at least around what we usually do (if we go 67% the rest of the way, we’ll be looking good on the season).”

That Email got me excited for the next 6 weeks of football, and I’m already a guy who gets excited about watching, writing about, and betting on football.

So beacuse we run everything on Tuesday but it takes a while to get everything up and running, we don’t usually post this stuff until Thursday, but because we want our readers to get an early jump on action that we think needs early action jumped on, we’re posting this up today, Tuesday afternoon.

Click inside to see the bets!

Read the rest of this entry »

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